Author: chandler yergin
Date: 17:04:27 01/12/05
Go up one level in this thread
On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote: >On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote: > >>Dann, >> >>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible. >> >>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess. This assumes >> >>1) 10^120 possible positions > >This is far, far too large. Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits, >which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than >that). > >>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions > >The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as >moot. It's NOT an "assumption!" THAT, is YOUR error! YOUR Ass-umptions that follow are ludicrouos! > >>3) Moore's law holding ad-infinitum i.e. doubling in speed every 18 months >>4) Assume that we're happy to let a computer ponder for one whole year to solve >>the game (i.e. 31.5 million secs) >>5) Today the fastest quad PC can analyze 5 million pos / sec today >> >>These assumptions imply that after 273 years the fastest computer systems will >>be able to solve chess given 1 years worth of thought!! >> >>Of course I doubt that Moore's law will hold for 300 years - but who knows! >> >>I think I know the answer already 1.e4 draw!!! >> >>Steve
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