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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 17:21:29 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:02:33, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 19:54:14, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>
>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>
>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>
>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>
>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>
>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>
>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>about.
>>>
>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>
>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>
>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>Question.
>>>Would you agree?
>>>
>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>
>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>
>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>
>>>THINK!
>>>
>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white. Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few. That's a very big number. For
>>>example, there have only been 10^26 nanoseconds since the Big Bang. There are
>>>thought to be only 10^75 atoms in the entire universe. When you consider that
>>>the Milky Way galaxy contains billions of suns, and there are billions of
>>>galaxies, you can see that that's a whole lot of atoms. That number is dwarfed
>>>by the number of possible chess moves. Chess is a pretty intricate game!"
>>>
>>>NOW, Do you want to "Disprove" this...
>>>OR,
>>>Re-think your position?
>>>
>>>HMMMMM?
>>>Stop the Nonsense!
>>
>>You do not have to calculate all the games.  You only have to calculate all the
>>positions.  There are about 10^43 of them:
>>http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Chess.html
>>
>>KD has encoded chess positions into 162 bits, which gives an absolute upper
>>maximum on the number of board positions as:
>>2^162 = 5846006549323611672814739330865132078623730171904 possible positions.
>>(about 5.846e48)
>>
>>So, if we take that figure, then we would need a tree of sqrt(5.846e48) =
>>2417851639229258349412352 positions (which is less than one mole of them) to
>>store a complete solution tree.
>>
>>This was proven by Knuth in 1972.
>>
>>There are some other things that the programmer would have to track (hmc and
>>3-way repeat, for instance) but that is trivial.
>>
>>My brother in law's father has a patent on a storage medium that will hold a
>>terrabyte per square centimeter.  So the storage for such a collection is
>>already nearly possible.  That would require 2417851639229 square centimeters,
>>which is 241785163 square meters = 241 square kilometers.
>>Since there are 230.4 acres per square kilometer, that means we would need a
>>mere 55,430 acres of the stuff.
>>
>>If someone were to invest a few billion dollars, we could do it today.  But we
>>may as well wait 40 years, in which time it will cost a few pennies to do it.
>
>
>NONSENSE!
>You can put all 6 Billion people of the world in the State of Texas too...
> and have room  left over.   So what?
>
>Mathmatically.. Chess, as I showed has 10^ 120th Power possible number of
>moves... in an "Average Game!"
>Increase that by a move or two, and the number of possible moves IS almost
>"infinite"

You do not have to solve the moves.  You only need to know the best move from
each position.

>You, are convincing no one.. well maybe some, but certainly NOT ME!

I do not expect to convince you.  You aren't listening.



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