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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 17:29:32 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:21:29, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:02:33, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:54:14, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>
>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>
>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>
>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>about.
>>>>
>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>
>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>
>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>Question.
>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>
>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>
>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>
>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>
>>>>THINK!
>>>>
>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white. Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few. That's a very big number. For
>>>>example, there have only been 10^26 nanoseconds since the Big Bang. There are
>>>>thought to be only 10^75 atoms in the entire universe. When you consider that
>>>>the Milky Way galaxy contains billions of suns, and there are billions of
>>>>galaxies, you can see that that's a whole lot of atoms. That number is dwarfed
>>>>by the number of possible chess moves. Chess is a pretty intricate game!"
>>>>
>>>>NOW, Do you want to "Disprove" this...
>>>>OR,
>>>>Re-think your position?
>>>>
>>>>HMMMMM?
>>>>Stop the Nonsense!
>>>
>>>You do not have to calculate all the games.  You only have to calculate all the
>>>positions.  There are about 10^43 of them:
>>>http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Chess.html
>>>
>>>KD has encoded chess positions into 162 bits, which gives an absolute upper
>>>maximum on the number of board positions as:
>>>2^162 = 5846006549323611672814739330865132078623730171904 possible positions.
>>>(about 5.846e48)
>>>
>>>So, if we take that figure, then we would need a tree of sqrt(5.846e48) =
>>>2417851639229258349412352 positions (which is less than one mole of them) to
>>>store a complete solution tree.
>>>
>>>This was proven by Knuth in 1972.
>>>
>>>There are some other things that the programmer would have to track (hmc and
>>>3-way repeat, for instance) but that is trivial.
>>>
>>>My brother in law's father has a patent on a storage medium that will hold a
>>>terrabyte per square centimeter.  So the storage for such a collection is
>>>already nearly possible.  That would require 2417851639229 square centimeters,
>>>which is 241785163 square meters = 241 square kilometers.
>>>Since there are 230.4 acres per square kilometer, that means we would need a
>>>mere 55,430 acres of the stuff.
>>>
>>>If someone were to invest a few billion dollars, we could do it today.  But we
>>>may as well wait 40 years, in which time it will cost a few pennies to do it.
>>
>>
>>NONSENSE!
>>You can put all 6 Billion people of the world in the State of Texas too...
>> and have room  left over.   So what?
>>
>>Mathmatically.. Chess, as I showed has 10^ 120th Power possible number of
>>moves... in an "Average Game!"
>>Increase that by a move or two, and the number of possible moves IS almost
>>"infinite"
>
>You do not have to solve the moves.  You only need to know the best move from
>each position.

YES!  How do you know what the "Best MOVE" IS, untill you Brute Force them ALL!
??????????????

Now Stop your NONSENSE!
>
>>You, are convincing no one.. well maybe some, but certainly NOT ME!
>
>I do not expect to convince you.  You aren't listening.



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