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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 17:31:43 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 20:12:40, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:09:36, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:11, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:45:49, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:41:44, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>>>about.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>>>Question.
>>>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>>
>>>>>Mathematics will not tell you if it is practically possible to solve chess.
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>THINK!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>>
>>>>>Yes but you do not need to analyze everyone of them and no program does it.
>>>>>
>>>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white.
>>>>>
>>>>>The number of possible games of 3 plies is more than 8000.
>>>>>The number of possible positions that you get after 3 plies is smaller because
>>>>>1.e4 e6 2.d4 is identical to 1.d4 e6 2.e4
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few.
>>>>>
>>>>>No
>>>>>
>>>>>The number of possible games is higher than 10^120
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Give or take a few...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>The number of total positions is clearly smaller.
>>>>
>>>>I just proved it isn't!
>>>
>>>No you did not.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>Maybe 10^40 and it is easy to prove it.
>>>>
>>>>PROVE IT! Stop your absurd assertions!
>>>
>>>Ok here is a proof it is less than 10^55
>>>
>>>For every position you do the following steps:
>>>
>>>1)defining place for the kings:
>>>less than 64^2=2^12 possibilities
>>>2)defining the empty squares of the rest of the pieces 2^62 possibilities
>>>
>>>3)defining the type of the pieces in the non empty squares.
>>>
>>>Every non empty square has 10 possibilities(5 for white and 5 for black):
>>>1)White queen
>>>2)White Rook
>>>3)White bishop
>>>4)White knight
>>>5)White pawn
>>>
>>>The total number of cases is 10 for every one of the 30 squares(or less non
>>>empty squares so you have at most 10^30 possibilities.
>>>
>>>4)defining the side to move 2 possibilities
>>>
>>>5)define the ep flag 8 possibilities
>>>
>>>6)defining castling rights(16 possibilities in the worst case)
>>>
>>>2^74*10^30*2*8*16<10^55
>>>
>>>Most of the positions are illegal because position when the side to move is in
>>>check is illegal or position when white has 9 pawns is illegal.
>>>
>>>If you limit yourself only to legal positions than 10^40 seems to be a good
>>>estimate.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Well it's NOT!
>>Key word again... "Seems". You use that a LOT Uri.
>>Possible moves... 10 ^120th Power!   IN an "average game of 40 moves...
>>NOW REFUTE IT!
>>Can't huh?
>
>possible moves is not possible positions.
>
>possible moves in game of 40 moves of KRB vs KR is also in the same order but
>programs can see mate in more than 50 in that endgame because the tablebases are
>based on analysis of positions and not on analysis of moves and first the
>program find all the mate position and later it finds all the position when the
>distance to mate in 1 and continue in that way.
>


"Possible Moves" ARE POSITIONS!
Legal Positions...
They are for practical purposes INFINITE!
>Uri



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