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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 17:45:47 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:32:35, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:30:56, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:26:56, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:19:48, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:27, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>
>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>
>>>The Question does NOT concern "sensible" positions.. It concerns ALL Possible
>>>positions!
>>>What don't you understand?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>It's NOT an "assumption!"
>>>>>THAT, is YOUR error!
>>>>>
>>>>>YOUR Ass-umptions that follow are ludicrouos!
>>>>
>>>>Not only is it demonstrably and obviously incorrect, the proper result is well
>>>>known and has been known for decades.
>>>
>>>CRAP!  Stop your biased Opinion and REFUTE my Statement!
>>
>>I have already done it.  You simply don't understand it.
>>
>>> Furthermore, no advanced mathematics are
>>>>needed to grasp it.  A simple junior high level understanding should be
>>>>sufficient.
>>>
>>>Yeah.. well PROVE IT!
>>
>>Already done
>>Q.E.D.
>
>
>You'd like to think so...
>NOT SO!

I will explain it so that you will very easily understand.  Consider the game of
tic-tac-toe.

There are 255,168 TTT games, and yet (modulo symmetries) there are only 765
possible achievable positions.

If (for each of those positions) I know what move I should make (any best move
will do) then I have solved the game.  With a table of the 765 answers, whatever
move you make, I will make my answer move.

See:
http://www.btinternet.com/~se16/hgb/tictactoe.htm

Hence, the number of possible chess games is totally irrelevant.  The only thing
that matters is the number of possible chess positions.  Once I have computed my
oracle, I will know what to do no matter what the board looks like.

It does not matter how many ways there are to achieve a position.  I only have
to know what to do once I get there.

[Event "Edited game"]
[Site "DCORBIT64"]
[Date "2005.01.12"]
[Round "-"]
[White "-"]
[Black "-"]
[Result "*"]

1. Nc3 Nc6 2. Nb1 Nb8 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nb1 Nb8 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. Nb1 Nb8 7. Nc3
Nc6 8. e3 e6
*

[Event "Edited game"]
[Site "DCORBIT64"]
[Date "2005.01.12"]
[Round "-"]
[White "-"]
[Black "-"]
[Result "*"]

1. Nc3 Nc6 2. e3 e6
*



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