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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 17:51:59 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 20:49:35, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:29:32, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:21:29, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:02:33, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:54:14, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>>>about.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>>>Question.
>>>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>THINK!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white. Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few. That's a very big number. For
>>>>>>example, there have only been 10^26 nanoseconds since the Big Bang. There are
>>>>>>thought to be only 10^75 atoms in the entire universe. When you consider that
>>>>>>the Milky Way galaxy contains billions of suns, and there are billions of
>>>>>>galaxies, you can see that that's a whole lot of atoms. That number is dwarfed
>>>>>>by the number of possible chess moves. Chess is a pretty intricate game!"
>>>>>>
>>>>>>NOW, Do you want to "Disprove" this...
>>>>>>OR,
>>>>>>Re-think your position?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>HMMMMM?
>>>>>>Stop the Nonsense!
>>>>>
>>>>>You do not have to calculate all the games.  You only have to calculate all the
>>>>>positions.  There are about 10^43 of them:
>>>>>http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Chess.html
>>>>>
>>>>>KD has encoded chess positions into 162 bits, which gives an absolute upper
>>>>>maximum on the number of board positions as:
>>>>>2^162 = 5846006549323611672814739330865132078623730171904 possible positions.
>>>>>(about 5.846e48)
>>>>>
>>>>>So, if we take that figure, then we would need a tree of sqrt(5.846e48) =
>>>>>2417851639229258349412352 positions (which is less than one mole of them) to
>>>>>store a complete solution tree.
>>>>>
>>>>>This was proven by Knuth in 1972.
>>>>>
>>>>>There are some other things that the programmer would have to track (hmc and
>>>>>3-way repeat, for instance) but that is trivial.
>>>>>
>>>>>My brother in law's father has a patent on a storage medium that will hold a
>>>>>terrabyte per square centimeter.  So the storage for such a collection is
>>>>>already nearly possible.  That would require 2417851639229 square centimeters,
>>>>>which is 241785163 square meters = 241 square kilometers.
>>>>>Since there are 230.4 acres per square kilometer, that means we would need a
>>>>>mere 55,430 acres of the stuff.
>>>>>
>>>>>If someone were to invest a few billion dollars, we could do it today.  But we
>>>>>may as well wait 40 years, in which time it will cost a few pennies to do it.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>NONSENSE!
>>>>You can put all 6 Billion people of the world in the State of Texas too...
>>>> and have room  left over.   So what?
>>>>
>>>>Mathmatically.. Chess, as I showed has 10^ 120th Power possible number of
>>>>moves... in an "Average Game!"
>>>>Increase that by a move or two, and the number of possible moves IS almost
>>>>"infinite"
>>>
>>>You do not have to solve the moves.  You only need to know the best move from
>>>each position.
>>
>>YES!  How do you know what the "Best MOVE" IS, untill you Brute Force them ALL!
>>??????????????
>
>Eugene Nalimov's tablebase files contain perfect knowlege.  Where did it come
>from?
>
>It may be possble to find the best move based upon first principles without
>brute force.  In any case, it will soon be possible to solve chess.

Ludicrous! ASS-Umption, NO evidence to even suggest this!
If you can't grasp the obvious.. which you don't, TOOOOOO Bad!

  Within ten
>years I think it will be practically solved (such that a human no longer has any
>chances against the best machine).


Crap!

>
>>Now Stop your NONSENSE!
>>>
>>>>You, are convincing no one.. well maybe some, but certainly NOT ME!
>>>
>>>I do not expect to convince you.  You aren't listening.



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