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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 17:55:54 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:31:43, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:12:40, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:09:36, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:11, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:45:49, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:41:44, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>>>>about.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>>>>Question.
>>>>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Mathematics will not tell you if it is practically possible to solve chess.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>THINK!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Yes but you do not need to analyze everyone of them and no program does it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The number of possible games of 3 plies is more than 8000.
>>>>>>The number of possible positions that you get after 3 plies is smaller because
>>>>>>1.e4 e6 2.d4 is identical to 1.d4 e6 2.e4
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>No
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The number of possible games is higher than 10^120
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Give or take a few...
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The number of total positions is clearly smaller.
>>>>>
>>>>>I just proved it isn't!
>>>>
>>>>No you did not.
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>Maybe 10^40 and it is easy to prove it.
>>>>>
>>>>>PROVE IT! Stop your absurd assertions!
>>>>
>>>>Ok here is a proof it is less than 10^55
>>>>
>>>>For every position you do the following steps:
>>>>
>>>>1)defining place for the kings:
>>>>less than 64^2=2^12 possibilities
>>>>2)defining the empty squares of the rest of the pieces 2^62 possibilities
>>>>
>>>>3)defining the type of the pieces in the non empty squares.
>>>>
>>>>Every non empty square has 10 possibilities(5 for white and 5 for black):
>>>>1)White queen
>>>>2)White Rook
>>>>3)White bishop
>>>>4)White knight
>>>>5)White pawn
>>>>
>>>>The total number of cases is 10 for every one of the 30 squares(or less non
>>>>empty squares so you have at most 10^30 possibilities.
>>>>
>>>>4)defining the side to move 2 possibilities
>>>>
>>>>5)define the ep flag 8 possibilities
>>>>
>>>>6)defining castling rights(16 possibilities in the worst case)
>>>>
>>>>2^74*10^30*2*8*16<10^55
>>>>
>>>>Most of the positions are illegal because position when the side to move is in
>>>>check is illegal or position when white has 9 pawns is illegal.
>>>>
>>>>If you limit yourself only to legal positions than 10^40 seems to be a good
>>>>estimate.
>>>>
>>>>Uri
>>>
>>>Well it's NOT!
>>>Key word again... "Seems". You use that a LOT Uri.
>>>Possible moves... 10 ^120th Power!   IN an "average game of 40 moves...
>>>NOW REFUTE IT!
>>>Can't huh?
>>
>>possible moves is not possible positions.
>>
>>possible moves in game of 40 moves of KRB vs KR is also in the same order but
>>programs can see mate in more than 50 in that endgame because the tablebases are
>>based on analysis of positions and not on analysis of moves and first the
>>program find all the mate position and later it finds all the position when the
>>distance to mate in 1 and continue in that way.
>>
>
>
>"Possible Moves" ARE POSITIONS!

You are wrong.

>Legal Positions...

The number of legal positions is not remotely connected to the number of
possible games.

>They are for practical purposes INFINITE!

That is a silly thing to say.




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