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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 17:58:47 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:42, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>
>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>
>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>
>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>
>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>that).
>>>>
>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>
>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>moot.
>>>
>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>
>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>
>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>full tree.
>
>The problem is that the number of nodes in the full tree is bigger than the
>number of positions because the same position can happen in many branches of the
>tree.
>
>Even with perfect order of moves you cannot solve KRB vs KR by alpha beta with
>sqrt(2^30) nodes.
>
>Uri
>Uri


I think you are on my side...
;)



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