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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 18:02:01 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 20:57:40, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>
>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>
>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>
>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>
>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>that).
>>>>
>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>
>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>moot.
>>>
>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>
>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>
>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>full tree.
>>
>>If there were 10^120 in the full tree, then about 10^60 would be in the solution
>>tree.
>>
>>It can be less than that.
>
>It "Can't be LESS than that!
>
> But it cannot be more.
>
>
>It Certainly CAN!
>
>In any TREE.. the TREE ONLY represents "What HAS Been PLayed."
>REFUTE THAT!

You do not have to solve every game.  Only every position.  Look at the two
chess games that I posted.  The end position for both was identical.  In fact,
despite the many moves, there are only a very few positions that are distinct.
For each of those positions, if you know the best move, you do not care how you
got there.

>Can't HUH?

It's trivial.

>Give it up!



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