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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 18:05:32 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 21:03:26, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 21:01:57, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:57:24, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:04, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:45:47, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:32:35, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:30:56, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:26:56, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:19:48, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:27, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>The Question does NOT concern "sensible" positions.. It concerns ALL Possible
>>>>>>>>positions!
>>>>>>>>What don't you understand?
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>It's NOT an "assumption!"
>>>>>>>>>>THAT, is YOUR error!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>YOUR Ass-umptions that follow are ludicrouos!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Not only is it demonstrably and obviously incorrect, the proper result is well
>>>>>>>>>known and has been known for decades.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>CRAP!  Stop your biased Opinion and REFUTE my Statement!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I have already done it.  You simply don't understand it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Furthermore, no advanced mathematics are
>>>>>>>>>needed to grasp it.  A simple junior high level understanding should be
>>>>>>>>>sufficient.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Yeah.. well PROVE IT!
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Already done
>>>>>>>Q.E.D.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You'd like to think so...
>>>>>>NOT SO!
>>>>>
>>>>>I will explain it so that you will very easily understand.  Consider the game of
>>>>>tic-tac-toe.
>>>>>
>>>>>There are 255,168 TTT games, and yet (modulo symmetries) there are only 765
>>>>>possible achievable positions.
>>>>>
>>>>>If (for each of those positions) I know what move I should make (any best move
>>>>>will do) then I have solved the game.  With a table of the 765 answers, whatever
>>>>>move you make, I will make my answer move.
>>>>>
>>>>>See:
>>>>>http://www.btinternet.com/~se16/hgb/tictactoe.htm
>>>>>
>>>>>Hence, the number of possible chess games is totally irrelevant.  The only thing
>>>>>that matters is the number of possible chess positions.  Once I have computed my
>>>>>oracle, I will know what to do no matter what the board looks like.
>>>>>
>>>>>It does not matter how many ways there are to achieve a position.  I only have
>>>>>to know what to do once I get there.
>>>>>
>>>>>[Event "Edited game"]
>>>>>[Site "DCORBIT64"]
>>>>>[Date "2005.01.12"]
>>>>>[Round "-"]
>>>>>[White "-"]
>>>>>[Black "-"]
>>>>>[Result "*"]
>>>>>
>>>>>1. Nc3 Nc6 2. Nb1 Nb8 3. Nc3 Nc6 4. Nb1 Nb8 5. Nc3 Nc6 6. Nb1 Nb8 7. Nc3
>>>>>Nc6 8. e3 e6
>>>>>*
>>>>>
>>>>>[Event "Edited game"]
>>>>>[Site "DCORBIT64"]
>>>>>[Date "2005.01.12"]
>>>>>[Round "-"]
>>>>>[White "-"]
>>>>>[Black "-"]
>>>>>[Result "*"]
>>>>>
>>>>>1. Nc3 Nc6 2. e3 e6
>>>>>*
>>>>
>>>>You Dare comparing CHESS to Tic tac Toe? Or a LINE?
>>>
>>>I thought if I tried a simpler model you would understand it.  Obviously, I gave
>>>you WAY too much credit.
>>>
>>>>To Prove an Idiotic assumption?
>>>>The Last resort of a Knave...
>>>>Give it UP!
>>>>you are Lost in Fantasy... and wishful thinking!
>>>
>>>The games are the same.  Both are finite, zero sum games.  Chess is just a bit
>>>deeper.
>>>
>>>About the same step apart as chess to go.
>>>
>>>But Go will also be solved.
>>
>>
>>Sorry! Idiotic Nonsense!
>>I thought you had some sense...
>>I reverse my position!
>
>You seem to be having some problem discussing using mathematics or logic.  I am
>glad to see that you have finally reversed your position though.

Yes.. I used to have some respect for Programmers...



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