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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 18:07:58 01/12/05

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On January 12, 2005 at 21:04:12, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:54:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:51:59, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:49:35, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:29:32, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:21:29, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:02:33, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:54:14, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>>>>>>about.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>>>>>>Question.
>>>>>>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>>>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>THINK!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>>>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>>>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white. Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>>>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>>>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>>>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few. That's a very big number. For
>>>>>>>>>example, there have only been 10^26 nanoseconds since the Big Bang. There are
>>>>>>>>>thought to be only 10^75 atoms in the entire universe. When you consider that
>>>>>>>>>the Milky Way galaxy contains billions of suns, and there are billions of
>>>>>>>>>galaxies, you can see that that's a whole lot of atoms. That number is dwarfed
>>>>>>>>>by the number of possible chess moves. Chess is a pretty intricate game!"
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>NOW, Do you want to "Disprove" this...
>>>>>>>>>OR,
>>>>>>>>>Re-think your position?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>HMMMMM?
>>>>>>>>>Stop the Nonsense!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>You do not have to calculate all the games.  You only have to calculate all the
>>>>>>>>positions.  There are about 10^43 of them:
>>>>>>>>http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Chess.html
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>KD has encoded chess positions into 162 bits, which gives an absolute upper
>>>>>>>>maximum on the number of board positions as:
>>>>>>>>2^162 = 5846006549323611672814739330865132078623730171904 possible positions.
>>>>>>>>(about 5.846e48)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>So, if we take that figure, then we would need a tree of sqrt(5.846e48) =
>>>>>>>>2417851639229258349412352 positions (which is less than one mole of them) to
>>>>>>>>store a complete solution tree.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>This was proven by Knuth in 1972.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>There are some other things that the programmer would have to track (hmc and
>>>>>>>>3-way repeat, for instance) but that is trivial.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>My brother in law's father has a patent on a storage medium that will hold a
>>>>>>>>terrabyte per square centimeter.  So the storage for such a collection is
>>>>>>>>already nearly possible.  That would require 2417851639229 square centimeters,
>>>>>>>>which is 241785163 square meters = 241 square kilometers.
>>>>>>>>Since there are 230.4 acres per square kilometer, that means we would need a
>>>>>>>>mere 55,430 acres of the stuff.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>If someone were to invest a few billion dollars, we could do it today.  But we
>>>>>>>>may as well wait 40 years, in which time it will cost a few pennies to do it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>NONSENSE!
>>>>>>>You can put all 6 Billion people of the world in the State of Texas too...
>>>>>>> and have room  left over.   So what?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Mathmatically.. Chess, as I showed has 10^ 120th Power possible number of
>>>>>>>moves... in an "Average Game!"
>>>>>>>Increase that by a move or two, and the number of possible moves IS almost
>>>>>>>"infinite"
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You do not have to solve the moves.  You only need to know the best move from
>>>>>>each position.
>>>>>
>>>>>YES!  How do you know what the "Best MOVE" IS, untill you Brute Force them ALL!
>>>>>??????????????
>>>>
>>>>Eugene Nalimov's tablebase files contain perfect knowlege.  Where did it come
>>>>from?
>>>>
>>>>It may be possble to find the best move based upon first principles without
>>>>brute force.  In any case, it will soon be possible to solve chess.
>>>
>>>Ludicrous! ASS-Umption, NO evidence to even suggest this!
>>>If you can't grasp the obvious.. which you don't, TOOOOOO Bad!
>>
>>How do you think computers play RIGHT NOW?  Obviously, you do not know it,
>>because they do not brute force anything all the way to the end.  Rather, they
>>play according to principles that have been programmed into the evaluation
>>function.  And they already play as well as the best humans on earth.
>
>Well, they DON'T!
>They have NO intelligence, and in fact play DUMBER
>than Beginners in some Positions!

Where is the chess position where Shredder will play dumber than a beginner at
40 moves in 2 hours?

>Some Programmers are DUMB TOO!

No argument there.

>>>  Within ten
>>>>years I think it will be practically solved (such that a human no longer has any
>>>>chances against the best machine).
>>>
>>>
>>>Crap!
>>>
>>>>
>>>>>Now Stop your NONSENSE!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>You, are convincing no one.. well maybe some, but certainly NOT ME!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I do not expect to convince you.  You aren't listening.



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