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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 18:39:20 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:54, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:31:43, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:12:40, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:09:36, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:04:11, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:45:49, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:41:44, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>>>>>about.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>>>>>Question.
>>>>>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Mathematics will not tell you if it is practically possible to solve chess.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>THINK!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Yes but you do not need to analyze everyone of them and no program does it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The number of possible games of 3 plies is more than 8000.
>>>>>>>The number of possible positions that you get after 3 plies is smaller because
>>>>>>>1.e4 e6 2.d4 is identical to 1.d4 e6 2.e4
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>No
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The number of possible games is higher than 10^120
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Give or take a few...
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The number of total positions is clearly smaller.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I just proved it isn't!
>>>>>
>>>>>No you did not.
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Maybe 10^40 and it is easy to prove it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>PROVE IT! Stop your absurd assertions!
>>>>>
>>>>>Ok here is a proof it is less than 10^55
>>>>>
>>>>>For every position you do the following steps:
>>>>>
>>>>>1)defining place for the kings:
>>>>>less than 64^2=2^12 possibilities
>>>>>2)defining the empty squares of the rest of the pieces 2^62 possibilities
>>>>>
>>>>>3)defining the type of the pieces in the non empty squares.
>>>>>
>>>>>Every non empty square has 10 possibilities(5 for white and 5 for black):
>>>>>1)White queen
>>>>>2)White Rook
>>>>>3)White bishop
>>>>>4)White knight
>>>>>5)White pawn
>>>>>
>>>>>The total number of cases is 10 for every one of the 30 squares(or less non
>>>>>empty squares so you have at most 10^30 possibilities.
>>>>>
>>>>>4)defining the side to move 2 possibilities
>>>>>
>>>>>5)define the ep flag 8 possibilities
>>>>>
>>>>>6)defining castling rights(16 possibilities in the worst case)
>>>>>
>>>>>2^74*10^30*2*8*16<10^55
>>>>>
>>>>>Most of the positions are illegal because position when the side to move is in
>>>>>check is illegal or position when white has 9 pawns is illegal.
>>>>>
>>>>>If you limit yourself only to legal positions than 10^40 seems to be a good
>>>>>estimate.
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>Well it's NOT!
>>>>Key word again... "Seems". You use that a LOT Uri.
>>>>Possible moves... 10 ^120th Power!   IN an "average game of 40 moves...
>>>>NOW REFUTE IT!
>>>>Can't huh?
>>>
>>>possible moves is not possible positions.
>>>
>>>possible moves in game of 40 moves of KRB vs KR is also in the same order but
>>>programs can see mate in more than 50 in that endgame because the tablebases are
>>>based on analysis of positions and not on analysis of moves and first the
>>>program find all the mate position and later it finds all the position when the
>>>distance to mate in 1 and continue in that way.
>>>
>>
>>
>>"Possible Moves" ARE POSITIONS!
>
>You are wrong.
>
>>Legal Positions...
>
>The number of legal positions is not remotely connected to the number of
>possible games.
>
>>They are for practical purposes INFINITE!
>
>That is a silly thing to say.

"Possible moves" in a game of Chess ARE Legal Moves only!

That is irrefutable! If you think that is silly; ya been nippin on the juice
again...
Stay away from that "White Lightnin.." it'll make ya go Blind as well as Dumb!



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