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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 18:43:18 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 12, 2005 at 21:09:11, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 21:04:12, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:54:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:51:59, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:49:35, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:29:32, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:21:29, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:02:33, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:54:14, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:27:05, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:11:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:04:31, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>So says Mark Twain....
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>You Programmers are spreading lies, misinformation, & disinformation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>However I should not attribute to Malice, what can be explained by Ignorance!
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>Computers will NEVER SOLVE CHESS!
>>>>>>>>>>>>Stop your Nonsense!
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>If man were meant to fly, he'd have wings.
>>>>>>>>>>>Man will never fly faster than sound.
>>>>>>>>>>>Man will never go to the moon.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>In this particular case, it is even obvious mathematically how it will come
>>>>>>>>>>>about.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>If you understood Mathmatics, you wouldn't say that!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>It IS Obvious, that it's an Impossibility!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>The Question of "whether or not God exists" is a Philosophical & Meataphysical
>>>>>>>>>>Question.
>>>>>>>>>>Would you agree?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Some say.. "It can't be Proven".
>>>>>>>>>>With a Philosophical Question, there are NO 'right or wrong' answers...
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>With Mathmatics, there ARE 'right & wrong' answers.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>Your perception is in error!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>THINK!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>"In a tree,  from the Starting Position, there are 20 possible moves for white.
>>>>>>>>>>There are 20 * 20 = 400 possible moves for black, depending on what white does.
>>>>>>>>>>Then there are 400 * 20 = 8,000 for white. Then there are 8,000 * 20 = 160,000
>>>>>>>>>>for black, and so on. If you were to fully develop the entire tree for all
>>>>>>>>>>possible chess moves, the total number of board positions is about
>>>>>>>>>>1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
>>>>>>>>>>000,000,000,000, or 10^120, give or take a few. That's a very big number. For
>>>>>>>>>>example, there have only been 10^26 nanoseconds since the Big Bang. There are
>>>>>>>>>>thought to be only 10^75 atoms in the entire universe. When you consider that
>>>>>>>>>>the Milky Way galaxy contains billions of suns, and there are billions of
>>>>>>>>>>galaxies, you can see that that's a whole lot of atoms. That number is dwarfed
>>>>>>>>>>by the number of possible chess moves. Chess is a pretty intricate game!"
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>NOW, Do you want to "Disprove" this...
>>>>>>>>>>OR,
>>>>>>>>>>Re-think your position?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>HMMMMM?
>>>>>>>>>>Stop the Nonsense!
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>You do not have to calculate all the games.  You only have to calculate all the
>>>>>>>>>positions.  There are about 10^43 of them:
>>>>>>>>>http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Chess.html
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>KD has encoded chess positions into 162 bits, which gives an absolute upper
>>>>>>>>>maximum on the number of board positions as:
>>>>>>>>>2^162 = 5846006549323611672814739330865132078623730171904 possible positions.
>>>>>>>>>(about 5.846e48)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>So, if we take that figure, then we would need a tree of sqrt(5.846e48) =
>>>>>>>>>2417851639229258349412352 positions (which is less than one mole of them) to
>>>>>>>>>store a complete solution tree.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>This was proven by Knuth in 1972.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>There are some other things that the programmer would have to track (hmc and
>>>>>>>>>3-way repeat, for instance) but that is trivial.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>My brother in law's father has a patent on a storage medium that will hold a
>>>>>>>>>terrabyte per square centimeter.  So the storage for such a collection is
>>>>>>>>>already nearly possible.  That would require 2417851639229 square centimeters,
>>>>>>>>>which is 241785163 square meters = 241 square kilometers.
>>>>>>>>>Since there are 230.4 acres per square kilometer, that means we would need a
>>>>>>>>>mere 55,430 acres of the stuff.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>If someone were to invest a few billion dollars, we could do it today.  But we
>>>>>>>>>may as well wait 40 years, in which time it will cost a few pennies to do it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>NONSENSE!
>>>>>>>>You can put all 6 Billion people of the world in the State of Texas too...
>>>>>>>> and have room  left over.   So what?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Mathmatically.. Chess, as I showed has 10^ 120th Power possible number of
>>>>>>>>moves... in an "Average Game!"
>>>>>>>>Increase that by a move or two, and the number of possible moves IS almost
>>>>>>>>"infinite"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>You do not have to solve the moves.  You only need to know the best move from
>>>>>>>each position.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>YES!  How do you know what the "Best MOVE" IS, untill you Brute Force them ALL!
>>>>>>??????????????
>>>>>
>>>>>Eugene Nalimov's tablebase files contain perfect knowlege.  Where did it come
>>>>>from?
>>>>>
>>>>>It may be possble to find the best move based upon first principles without
>>>>>brute force.  In any case, it will soon be possible to solve chess.
>>>>
>>>>Ludicrous! ASS-Umption, NO evidence to even suggest this!
>>>>If you can't grasp the obvious.. which you don't, TOOOOOO Bad!
>>>
>>>How do you think computers play RIGHT NOW?  Obviously, you do not know it,
>>>because they do not brute force anything all the way to the end.  Rather, they
>>>play according to principles that have been programmed into the evaluation
>>>function.  And they already play as well as the best humans on earth.
>>
>>Well, they DON'T!
>>They have NO intelligence, and in fact play DUMBER
>>than Beginners in some Positions!
>>Some Programmers are DUMB TOO!
>
>If you think that they are dumb you are invited to write your chess program and
>prove that you are smarter.
>
>They may play stupid move in some positions but the total result is that they
>play better than almost all humans.

In "SOME" Positions!

Wanna refute that?

Can't can ya?
YOU know there are BUGS!
SOME Positions they haven't a CLUE.. a Human can see in a secnd.. what takes
them weeks.. months, or a Life time, and will NEVER Figure out!
They may spin your Hard Drive til the end of time... and be just as DUMB Then as
at the beginning!

I didn't just get off the Turnip Truck!
Who the Hell do you think you're kidding?
>
>Uri
>
>Uri



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