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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics! Programmers GET REAL!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 22:57:38 01/12/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 13, 2005 at 01:52:52, Uri Blass wrote:

>On January 13, 2005 at 00:48:10, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>Yes! From Your LINK!
>>
>>It's worth Quoting!
>>"Subject : Re: The total number of possible chess positions? WT
>>
>>Posted by : Robert Hyatt on September 01, 2000 at 23:41:29
>>
>>On August 31, 2000 at 15:54:16, Frederic Friedel wrote:
>>
>>On August 31, 2000 at 15:01:18, Vincent Lejeune wrote:
>>
>>If I remember well I red in a magasin some years ago that there is 10^80
>>possible positions and there is 10^120 different playable games (no
>>demonstration was given).
>>
>>There are 10^112 possible games lasting 40 moves. This is considerably more than
>>the 10^82 elementary particles in the universe. It is clear that, for principle
>>reasons, all possible games will not be reconstructed (generated and stored) in
>>the course of this universe.
>>
>>But we don?t need to do that in order to solve chess (in the Thompson endgame
>>sense). The number of possible legal chess positions is far smaller: between
>>10^53 and 10^55. So will we (or someone or something) be able to work them out,
>>effectively retro-analysing the 32-piece endgame chess represents?
>>
>>Again the answer is no, but not on principle grounds but for practical reasons.
>>A computer processing a billion positions per second would require about 10^38
>>years to solve the game. If you use a billion computers in perfect
>>multi-processing you will still have to wait 10^29 years for the answer (and if
>>you are not careful with the program it might simply produce ?42?).
>>
>>But there is still a major problem. You cannot store the tables on CDs or DVDs.
>>As John Nunn explained to me we will need the matter from many millions of
>>galaxies to store the information that is generated. So solving the game using
>>the method of exhaustive analysis is theoretically possible, but one wonders
>>what Greenpeace would say if we started dismantling galaxies in order to store
>>chess positions.
>>
>>
>>This is way too simplistic an estimate, unless the 50 move rule and 3-fold
>>repetition rules are discarded. In reality there are nearly an infinite number
>>of positions, because each position is unique to the path leading to it. Just
>>because the same piece configuration has been reached in two or more positions,
>>the positions are not guaranteed to be equal. How many different pathways can
>>be spanned to reach those identical positions? And how do those pathways
>>affect the 50 move and repetition rules?
>>
>>When you take a single position with the 32 pieces (or fewer) placed on the
>>board in a legal configuration, and then try to enumerate all the pathways
>>from the original position which can lead to these two identical positions,
>>the number of pathways is absolutely enormous. And each "identical" position
>>would be different because the moves played _after_ each of these positions
>>would inherit different 50 move counters and different repetition lists.
>>
>>I think you could safely say that the game is nearly infinite... or at least
>>so large that the difference between the real number and infinity is not
>>easy to interpret.
>>
>>  NOw.. Programmers... Yu think ya can 'get smart' with me; but..
>>You want to REFUTE Dr. Hyatt, DR. John Nunn &  Frederick Friedel?
>>STOP YOUR NONSENSE!
>
>I do not see where Dr. John nunn is involved there.
>
>Frederick Friedel did not claim that it is impossible but only that you need to
>store many positions and I agree with it.
>
>I think that his number is too high and I proved less than 10^47 positions so
>10^53-10^55 is only upper bound.
>
>I do not agree with Hyatt's words there
>Hyatt said there about the practical problems pf solving chess:
>
>"because each position is unique to the path leading to it."
>
>This is relevant only for playing programs but it is totally irrelevant for
>tablebases.
>
>Tablebases do not consider the path and there is no problem with them except the
>50 move rule and the 50 move rule problem can be corrected by having special
>tables of distance to conversion instead of distance to mate(program may miss
>the shortest mate but it is not important because it is important only to find
>mate when there is a mate and they will prefer conversion in 2 and mate in 43
>and not conversion in 3 and mate in 30).
>
>repetition is not important because engine that always play the best move will
>get no repetition.
>
>Uri


And... with 1 pV your Hard drive will spin til "Hell Freezes Over"!

Give it up Uri!




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