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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 00:30:48 01/13/05

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On January 13, 2005 at 02:03:42, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 13, 2005 at 01:35:44, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On January 13, 2005 at 00:50:00, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 22:07:58, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 21:33:06, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 21:17:58, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:58:47, chandler yergin wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:55:42, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>>>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>>>>>>>that).
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>>>>>>>moot.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>>>>>>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>>>>>>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>>>>>>>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>>>>>>>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>>>>>>>>full tree.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>The problem is that the number of nodes in the full tree is bigger than the
>>>>>>>>number of positions because the same position can happen in many branches of the
>>>>>>>>tree.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Even with perfect order of moves you cannot solve KRB vs KR by alpha beta with
>>>>>>>>sqrt(2^30) nodes.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I think you are on my side...
>>>>>>>;)
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I disagree both with you and Dann.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>If you want to generate tablebases you cannot use sqrt like Dan suggest.
>>>>>>If you want to analyze possibility in games then sqrt is enough.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>In case that there are 10^120 games and 10^40 positions then chess can be solved
>>>>>>by sqrt(10^120) nodes or by 10^40 nodes
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>A NODE, IS a Position! Correct?
>>>>
>>>>Node is a position that is searched by the chess engine.
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>If there are 10^120 Games.. then 'every move' in those 10^120 games ARE
>>>>>Positions.
>>>>
>>>>Yes but not all of them are different so it is possible that there are only
>>>>10^40 different positions in a tree of 10^120 positions.
>>>>
>>>>There are too way to try to solve chess
>>>>
>>>>1)search(in this case you may search the same node in a lot of branches and you
>>>>search both 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d6 or 1.e4 d6 2.e4 e6 or 1.d4 e6 2.e4 d6 or 1.d4 d6
>>>>2.e4 e6)
>>>>
>>>>In 4 plies you can get the same position 4 times and in 80 plies that are 40
>>>>moves you may get it trillions of times in different branches of the tree.
>>>>
>>>>In tree alpha beta help to get sqrt of the number of games but it is not a good
>>>>idea to solve chess.
>>>>
>>>>2)tablebases that seems a better idea and the problem is that today there is not
>>>>enough memory.
>>>>
>>>>In this case you do not build a tree.
>>>>
>>>>you look at all the position first time and mark all the mates.
>>>>you look at all the position second time and mark all positions that you can get
>>>>mate in 1(position that is already marked)
>>>>
>>>>you look at all the position and mark all the positions that you cannot prevent
>>>>mate in 1(every move will need to position that is marked as mate in 1)
>>>>
>>>>There is no mate in 5000 because of the 50 move rule.
>>>>so after repeating this process 10,000 times you can continue stop it and every
>>>>position was searched only 10,000 times.
>>>>
>>>>This means that if the number of positions is 10^40 then time of searching
>>>>10^40*10,000 positions is going to be enough but you need also memory of 10^40
>>>>positions and this is the another problem with using this solution today.
>>>>
>>>>I do not know if we will be able to use memory of 10^40 positions or search
>>>>10^44 nodes in the next 100 years but I cannot say that I am sure that it is
>>>>impossible.
>>>>
>>>>10^40 positions is only an estimate and I do not know the exact number of
>>>>positions.
>>>>
>>>>I remember that I proved that it is less than 10^50 and even less than 10^47 in
>>>>the past by a computer program that counted the number of possible positions for
>>>>every possible material configuration and part of the positions that I counted
>>>>are also illegal because both kings are in check so the estimate of 10^40 seems
>>>>to me a good estimate.
>>>>
>>>>Uri
>>>
>>>
>>>Argue with Dr. Hyatt, Dr. John Nunn & Frederick Freidel!
>>>
>>>THEY agree with ME!
>>
>>I need to hear from them that they agree with you.
>
>The Article is self-evident! R-E-A-D!
>Comprehend!
>
>You are suckin hind Tit here!

I read the post of hyatt but I read nothing of Nunn.

>
>
>>
>>It is possible that they have the opinion that chess will not be solved in the
>>next 100 years(I only said that I do not know) but I believe that they do not
>>claim that it is a proved fact.
>
>DR. John Nunn does the Math.. the fact you cannot comprehend it.. is 'your'
>problem.

I have B.sc in mathematics and M.sc and doctor of philosophy in related
subjects.

I certainly can understand mathematics but I saw no post of John nunn there.

>>
>>I do not think that they agree that it is impossible to solve chess if you have
>>enough memory
>>to store 10^50 positions with distance to mate or conversion and machine that
>>can search 10^45 nodes per second.
>>
>>The question if this will be possible in the next 50 years or in the next 100
>>years is an open question.
>>
>>Uri
>  NO Question! Among those who know..
>You, have a Biased Opinion and an agenda, and you are misleading people!

No
I am not misleading people.
I say that we cannot know and that mathematics does not answer it.

I say that you are misleading people when you say that we need to search 10^120
to solve chess.

Uri



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