Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 10:41:12 01/13/05
I want to say something clearly. I cannot possibly prove that chess will be solved even one billion years from now. I cannot possibly prove that chess compute power will double every year. I cannot possibly prove that memory storage techology will double space every year. We have seen in the past that this is a trend, and the trend has continued for 150 years or so. But this is an argument from induction and not deduction. It is like a man who sees a white duck every morning for 6 years. He looks out his window and sees flocks and flocks of white ducks. And so he concludes (sensibly) that ducks are white. But induction can never prove a thing, because it is only a projection based on past experience and not any sort of a proof. Someday, he may see a mallard duck and it will spoil his whole theory. Therefore, anyone else's opinion is just as good as mine about it. And any sort of projection of the future is always a guess. For instance, I may see that my shoe is untied and decide to tie it. What is the probability that my shoe will get tied? Before the action occurs, it is something less than one. There may be an asteroid that strikes at my lat/lon just as I bend over to tie it. And so all projections of the future (which are clearly made with imperfect knowledge) are only educated guesses at best. In a sense, it is like arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
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