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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 15:21:06 01/13/05

Go up one level in this thread


On January 13, 2005 at 12:46:40, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 20:57:40, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:33:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On January 12, 2005 at 20:25:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:56:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On January 12, 2005 at 19:37:29, Steve Maughan wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>Dann,
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Things that seem impossible quickly become possible.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I recon about 300 years before a computer will solve chess.  This assumes
>>>>>>
>>>>>>1) 10^120 possible positions
>>>>>
>>>>>This is far, far too large.  Chess positions have been encoded in 162 bits,
>>>>>which puts an absolute upper limit at 10^58 (and it is probably much less than
>>>>>that).
>>>>>
>>>>>>2) Alpha-beta cutting this down to 10^60 sensible positions
>>>>>
>>>>>The incorrect first assumption renders this and all following assumtions as
>>>>>moot.
>>>>
>>>>The second assumption is also not correct.
>>>>
>>>>By the same logic alphabeta can cut less than 2^30 positions in KRB vs KR to
>>>>2^15 positions but it does not happen and solving some KRB vs KR position with
>>>>no KRB vs KR tablebases is not something that you need 2^15 nodes for it.
>>>
>>>No.  The second assumption would be true if the first was true.  This was
>>>formally PROVEN by Donald Knuth.  In a perfectly ordered alpha-beta solution
>>>tree, the number of nodes is proportional to the square root of the nodes in the
>>>full tree.
>>>
>>>If there were 10^120 in the full tree, then about 10^60 would be in the solution
>>>tree.
>>>
>>>It can be less than that.
>>
>>It "Can't be LESS than that!
>>
>> But it cannot be more.
>>
>>
>>It Certainly CAN!
>>
>>In any TREE.. the TREE ONLY represents "What HAS Been PLayed."
>>REFUTE THAT!
>>Can't HUH?
>>
>>Give it up!
>
>
>this is going nowhere.  DC is correct here, and the math is there to support
>him.  AB gives a minimal tree size with perfect ordering.  If you do perfect
>ordering, the AB tree will _not_ be larger than the usual estimate.  If you use
>hashing, it can be even smaller since you can avoid searching duplicate
>sub-trees that normal alpha/beta would search...
>
>In the above context, the tree does not represent "what has been played", It
>represents everything that has or can possibly be played in this particular
>position and its successors.

NONSENSE!
A TREE is "ONLY" what has been Played"
Are you one of the "DUMB, DEAF, & BLIND"?
I thought you had some Common sense!
Guess I was Wrong!

>
>Time to move on...



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