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Subject: Re: Lies.. Damn Lies & Statistics!

Author: chandler yergin

Date: 21:03:18 01/13/05

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On January 13, 2005 at 03:47:12, Russell Reagan wrote:

>On January 12, 2005 at 21:09:16, chandler yergin wrote:
>
>>How do you now the "Best Move" until you have calculated them ALL?
>>
>>Hmmm?
>
>
>You do have to examine every move, but you don't have to examine every move
>*completely* to know which move is the best move.
>
>Let me ask you a different question. Who has the most money: Bill Gates, Tiger
>Woods, or me? I can get the "best answer" in two different ways.
>
>The simple way, brute force: I could examine each person's finances
>*completely*. I could drive to the library and do research all day and get a
>close estimate of how much money Bill Gates and Tiger Woods have. The next day I
>could drive to my bank and wait in line to see exactly how much money I have.
>After I know how much money each of us has, I can compare the numbers and
>determine who has the most money.
>
>The smarter way, lazy evaluation: I get on the internet and see that Bill Gates
>has many billions of dollars. I see that Tiger Woods has many millions of
>dollars, but less than one billion dollars. I don't know exactly how much I
>have, but I know it is less than one thousand dollars. Now I compare these, and
>I see that Bill Gates must have the most money.
>
>Using the smart way, it doesn't matter if I know exactly how much money each of
>those people have, as long as I have upper and lower bounds. Bill Gates has at
>least one billion dollars. I have less than one billion dollars. Therefore he
>has more money.
>
>In the same way, the computer program doesn't have to know exactly how good or
>bad each move is. If it knows that move A wins at least one pawn, and that move
>B loses at least one rook, then it can stop examining move B. Move A might
>actually win three pawns, and move B might actually lose two rooks and a queen,
>but we don't need to know that to know that move A is better.


You've Never watched a pV Change when the Search went Deeper?

;)

Hmmmmmm?
Get real!




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