Author: George Sobala
Date: 02:54:59 01/29/05
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On January 29, 2005 at 05:34:24, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >what about if I had only played a 20 Games match and these games would have been >those played in rounds 71-90? Then, the result would have been 15.0-5.0 in >favour of Gandalf 4.32g!! Imagine what some testers would have argued about the >strenght of program X? Just to emphasis this point: it is not good looking at a series, picking out the most extreme result, and then saying "what if that one had been first, it would have misled everyone". Yes indeed it would have done, but statistics tell us that the EXTREME group of 10 games has only a SMALL chance of being the FIRST group of 10 games. It will sometimes happen. It is very unlikely to. In the Hiarcs case, one predicts it will happen 6% of the time if the engines were equal.
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