Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 12:36:48 02/11/05
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On February 11, 2005 at 14:48:56, Russell Reagan wrote: >On February 11, 2005 at 14:19:15, Dieter Buerssner wrote: > >>>2. Who do you think has the best chance to win? >>> >>>3. Which country has the best chance of winning? > >>I don't understand, why there are two questions. How does a country win? When >>Crafty wins, does it not imply, that USA wins? (This seems to be implied by your >>two questions). So, what are the exact rules for the "country prize"? > > >I think it means this. Pretend the question is, "Which continent has the best >chance of winning?" Pretend these are the participants: > >Shredder (single cpu) >Fritz (single cpu) >Ruffian (single cpu) >Diep (single cpu) >Yace (single cpu) >Fruit (single cpu) >SOS (single cpu) >Sjeng (single cpu) >Crafty (16-cpu Opteron) > >Someone might pick Crafty to win because it would have a big hardware advantage, Which would be wrong anyway. >but North America's chances of winning are low because Crafty is the only North >American participant and has to beat 8 other good opponents. Chances are good >that one of the European participants would be able to finish ahead of Crafty. > >Now pretend this is the tournament: > >Crafty >Ferret >Zappa >Fruit >Ruffian >SOS >Diep > >Now the chances for North America and Europe are more even. Though in global terms you are correct. The summation of the odds that an engine wins you must take into account. In 1 game anyone can beat anyone. However in a tournament there is 9 rounds. The best simply wins. For example if in this example we keep a round robin (2 games against each opponent) tournament, odds of winning are for example : Diep : 40% Zappa : 20% Crafty : 15% Ruffian : 15% Fruit : 10% SOS : 0% Ferret : 0% Then you simply add up the chances by nation and you get your result that: Netherlands : 40% USA : 35% Germany : 15% France : 10% In your first example you mention shredder for example. That gives already Germany biggest odds. Unless you give Fritz (Netherlands) an unrealistic chance. It didn't win much lately. I hope you realize that the more weak programs you add the bigger the chance is the strong program wins. For example suppose a 15 round event with 10 participants. 9 SOS versions fromthe very sympatique and extremely correct Rudolf Huber and 1 from Stefan. 1.Shredder ( single cpu) 2.SOS (quad) 3.SOS (dual) 4.SOS (single) 5.SOS 6.SOS 7.SOS 8.SOS 9.SOS 10.SOS Shredder will win this event of course with 99% sureness. Vincent
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