Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: CCT Gambling!!

Author: Tord Romstad

Date: 13:22:19 02/11/05

Go up one level in this thread


On February 11, 2005 at 15:46:04, Thomas Mayer wrote:

>>2. Who do you think has the best chance to win?
>
>Yace -> Dieter was always well prepared for CCTs...
>
>>3. Which country has the best chance of winning?
>
>Well, when I bet on Yace I must also bet on Germany, I think...

No, betting on Yace does not force you to bet on Germany.
A surprisingly high number of very intelligent people seem
to have difficulties understanding this, so I will try to explain
with a simple example:

Assume that there are only three engines in the tournament.
Let's call them A, B and C.  A is from country X, while B and C
are from country Y.  Assume that you think A has a 40% chance
of winning, while B and C has a chance of 30% each.  Then A
would be the *program* with the best chance of winning, but
Y would be the *country* with the best chance of winning,
despite the fact that program A is not from country Y.

Tord



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.