Author: Madhavan
Date: 00:13:14 02/12/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 11, 2005 at 22:51:22, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On February 11, 2005 at 15:36:48, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: > >>On February 11, 2005 at 14:48:56, Russell Reagan wrote: >> >>>On February 11, 2005 at 14:19:15, Dieter Buerssner wrote: >>> >>>>>2. Who do you think has the best chance to win? >>>>> >>>>>3. Which country has the best chance of winning? >>> >>>>I don't understand, why there are two questions. How does a country win? When >>>>Crafty wins, does it not imply, that USA wins? (This seems to be implied by your >>>>two questions). So, what are the exact rules for the "country prize"? >>> >>> >>>I think it means this. Pretend the question is, "Which continent has the best >>>chance of winning?" Pretend these are the participants: >>> >>>Shredder (single cpu) >>>Fritz (single cpu) >>>Ruffian (single cpu) >>>Diep (single cpu) >>>Yace (single cpu) >>>Fruit (single cpu) >>>SOS (single cpu) >>>Sjeng (single cpu) >>>Crafty (16-cpu Opteron) >>> >>>Someone might pick Crafty to win because it would have a big hardware advantage, >> >>Which would be wrong anyway. >> >>>but North America's chances of winning are low because Crafty is the only North >>>American participant and has to beat 8 other good opponents. Chances are good >>>that one of the European participants would be able to finish ahead of Crafty. >>> >>>Now pretend this is the tournament: >>> >>>Crafty >>>Ferret >>>Zappa >>>Fruit >>>Ruffian >>>SOS >>>Diep >>> >>>Now the chances for North America and Europe are more even. >> >>Though in global terms you are correct. The summation of the odds that an engine >>wins you must take into account. In 1 game anyone can beat anyone. >> >>However in a tournament there is 9 rounds. The best simply wins. >> >>For example if in this example we keep a round robin (2 games against each >>opponent) tournament, odds of winning are for example : >> Diep : 40% >> Zappa : 20% >> Crafty : 15% >> Ruffian : 15% >> Fruit : 10% >> SOS : 0% >> Ferret : 0% >> > >Wish bruce would become active again. I suspect he'd still hand you your >program's "head" in a paper sack in a match. Ferret would _still_ be strong. yes,i agree with you Bob,yet another ridiculous statement made by Vincent :) strange,he'd given you 15% chance of winning :) > > >>Then you simply add up the chances by nation and you get your result that: >> Netherlands : 40% >> USA : 35% >> Germany : 15% >> France : 10% >> >>In your first example you mention shredder for example. That gives already >>Germany biggest odds. >> >>Unless you give Fritz (Netherlands) an unrealistic chance. It didn't win much >>lately. >> >>I hope you realize that the more weak programs you add the bigger the chance is >>the strong program wins. For example suppose a 15 round event with 10 >>participants. >> >>9 SOS versions fromthe very sympatique and extremely correct Rudolf Huber and 1 >>from Stefan. >> >>1.Shredder ( single cpu) >>2.SOS (quad) >>3.SOS (dual) >>4.SOS (single) >>5.SOS >>6.SOS >>7.SOS >>8.SOS >>9.SOS >>10.SOS >> >>Shredder will win this event of course with 99% sureness. >> >>Vincent
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.