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Subject: Re: This test is not scientific!

Author: Don Dailey

Date: 11:53:29 01/27/99

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On January 26, 1999 at 14:59:21, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On January 26, 1999 at 13:49:29, Don Dailey wrote:
>
>>Hi Dann,
>>
>>I'm not trying to prove guilt, I'm trying to prove innocence.  I don't
>>think this test can prove guilt but it can easily raise enough doubt
>>that we should back off.
>>
>>If you are right and all or even one of the programs give a high match,
>>then there is plenty of room for doubt and we give them the benefit of
>>the doubt which I think is fair.   If however, Crafty matches
>>significantly higher percentage, then we have something to talk about.
>>I won't be claiming guilt in this case,  just that there is still
>>room to talk.
>>
>>I have already discovered that running 60 seconds on Cilkchess will
>>guarantee a much lower match rate,  so I am a little concerned that
>>people will run this very short 60 second test and try to draw unfair
>>conclusions from it.
>>
>>We will have enough data to come to some conclusion, even if the
>>conclusion is that we are not sure!   We also have log files from
>>them and an executable.  So we should be able to come to some
>>intelligent conclusion.   If nothing else, I want to know for my
>>own edification.

>The point which I was hoping to make was that a 100% match does not prove guilt
>nor does a 100% failure to match prove innocense.  This exercise can prove
>neither (IMO - but I could be wrong, of course).

Basically this is exactly what I said.  However I am willing to accept
convincing results (high match rate by another program) as a "proof"
that we should stop the discussion altogether.


>For example, I could change a couple numeric constants in the eval function of
>Cilkchess and make it play wildly different.  It would probably take 15 minutes
>of effort.  Or I could completely change the architecture and have it play much
>the same.
>
>My point is that the exercise does not have the intended effect.






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