Author: Stephen A. Boak
Date: 10:57:32 02/15/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 15, 2005 at 11:21:56, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: > >I hope that you realize 750 rating points means roughly 0% chance. > >What is the chance in YOUR opinion a program without book in 2005 has to win a >world champs event? > >If you say 0%, that means 700+ rating points. > >Vincent Your statistics are somewhat flawed. 1. A single program vs. another single program involves an ELO difference which may be translated into a scoring probability or expectation. Or a scoring probability or expectation (based on experimentation) may be translated into that ELO difference. More or less. 2. The probability of winning a tournament with multiple opponents involves multiple rounds and multiple cross-probabilities between a single program and the *many* programs that are opponents. For any arbitrarily chosen ELOs, the probability of winning a tournament is generally far less than the probability of scoring for a comp vs. comp single game match. 2A. Example, if 100 ELO points means approx. a 2-1 scoring advantage for the higher program (stronger program has a winning expectancy of approx. 60-65%), the lower program's expected scoring vs. that single program is approx. 35-40%. 2B. However, if that program must play a field of 9 other opponents each of which outrates the program by 100 points, the chances of the low ELO program winning a multi-round tournament against 9 players is extraordinarily low (vs. the 1-on-1 scoring ration of 30-35%). The chances of winning such a tournament may easily approach zero long before the ELO gap gets anywhere near to 700 points. Regards, --Steve
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.