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Subject: Re: A Statistical Study of Chess Results

Author: Norm Pollock

Date: 06:40:16 02/17/05

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On February 17, 2005 at 09:12:25, Rémi Coulom wrote:

>In a similar spirit, I recently tried to measure whether the proportion of draws
>increases as strength increases. This is true for human players, but not at all
>for computers. I ran this study on the big database containing all of Leo
>Dijksman's WBEC games, so the range of playing strength was very wide.
>
>I did this because someone pointed at the increase in the proportion of draws
>with strength as supporting the hypothesis that the theoretical value of the
>starting position is a draw. Comparing with computers indicate that this
>increase mainly support the hypothesis that grandmasters are lazy.
>
>Rémi

Computers have a very low percentage of draws. They play for the win. That's how
they are usually programmed. They don't know to take a "grandmaster" draw in
order to save energy for the next round, or take the draw so both players stay
in the prize money bracket when both players are out of contention for the top
prizes. Many seem to be programmed to avoid the draw and go for the win, full
speed ahead. So many times I see the 50-move rule approaching in an obviously
drawn game, and the computer makes an exchange or a pawn move just to keep the
game continuing. A grandmaster knows not to be so reckless unless he is playing
a weaker player.

I wouldn't conclude that grandmasters are lazy, although that appears that way
statistically. Grandmasters have more draws because they make less tactical
errors, and tournament considerations make it wiser sometimes to go for or
accept a draw.




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