Author: Norm Pollock
Date: 06:28:01 02/26/05
I now have the tools I needed to redo this study and do it with more control over relative elo values. Elo differences are not an issue with this new database. This new database consists of 63,687 long time-control human-human games, all with elo ratings for both players, both players 2300+, dates of games from Jan 01, 1991 to Dec 26,2004. The maximum elo-distance between the players in any game is 50 elo points. The average elo-distance in each sample is 25 elo points. The average elos for white and for black differ by less than 0.5 of an elo point. With this controlled database, the results are slightly different than before. There is a small trend towards equalization as the games get longer. However white still holds a commanding advantage over black, whether it is in games of 41+ plies, or 161+ plies. Over that range, white's winning percentage in non-drawn games steadily declines at a slow rate from 59.7% to 56.7%. Likewise the white score decreases from 55.7% to 53.5%. The prior database did not detect this trend. However black does not achieve equality through length. As a side note, I expect computer games to show different results than human-human games. Computers do not play for draws, which humans do on occassion, especially if they are playing the black pieces. Computers do not get tired and are not intimidated by very long drawn out equal positions. They still go for the win and invariably only draw if the draw is forced. Anyway, that is for a different study someday when I can find a computer-computer database with accurate elo values. I wish I could paste my excel spreadsheet, but the formatting gets messed up here. So I will state the results methodically: Plies >= 41 Games: 63687 (100.00%) Average White Elo: 2478.42 Average Black Elo: 2477.96 Average Elo Distance: 25.38 White Wins: 22228 (34.9%) Draws: 26441 (41.5%) Black Wins: 15018 (23.6%) White Score: 55.7% Black Score: 44.3% Non-Drawn Games: 37246 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 59.7% Plies >= 61 Games: 50383 (79.11%) Average White Elo: 2476.91 Average Black Elo: 2476.49 Average Elo Distance: 25.35 White Wins: 18888 (37.5%) Draws: 18441 (36.6%) Black Wins: 13054 (25.9%) White Score: 55.8% Black Score: 44.2% Non-Drawn Games: 31942 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 59.1% Plies >= 81 Games: 32476 (50.99%) Average White Elo: 2477.66 Average Black Elo: 2477.37 Average Elo Distance: 25.41 White Wins: 11728 (36.1%) Draws: 12522 (38.6%) Black Wins: 8226 (25.3%) White Score: 55.4% Black Score: 44.6% Non-Drawn Games: 19954 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 58.8% Plies >= 101 Games: 17198 (27.00%) Average White Elo: 2477.51 Average Black Elo: 2477.32 Average Elo Distance: 25.41 White Wins: 6063 (35.3%) Draws: 6735 (39.2%) Black Wins: 4400 (25.6%) White Score: 54.8% Black Score: 45.2% Non-Drawn Games: 10463 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.9% Plies >= 121 Games: 8158 (12.81%) Average White Elo: 2479.62 Average Black Elo: 2479.48 Average Elo Distance: 25.38 White Wins: 2774 (34.0%) Draws: 3366 (41.3%) Black Wins: 2018 (24.7%) White Score: 54.6% Black Score: 45.4% Non-Drawn Games: 4792 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.9% Plies >= 141 Games: 3484 (5.47%) Average White Elo: 2477.20 Average Black Elo: 2476.76 Average Elo Distance: 25.20 White Wins: 1121 (32.2%) Draws: 1522 (43.7%) Black Wins: 841 (24.1%) White Score: 54.0% Black Score: 46.0% Non-Drawn Games: 1962 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.1% Plies >= 161 Games: 1469 (2.31%) Average White Elo: 2483.07 Average Black Elo: 2482.44 Average Elo Distance: 25.19 White Wins: 440 (30.0%) Draws: 693 (47.2%) Black Wins: 336 (22.9%) White Score: 53.5% Black Score: 46.5% Non-Drawn Games: 776 White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 56.7%
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