Author: Ricardo Gibert
Date: 07:52:02 02/26/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 26, 2005 at 09:28:01, Norm Pollock wrote: >I now have the tools I needed to redo this study and do it with more control >over relative elo values. Elo differences are not an issue with this new >database. > >This new database consists of 63,687 long time-control human-human games, all >with elo ratings for both players, both players 2300+, dates of games from Jan >01, 1991 to Dec 26,2004. > >The maximum elo-distance between the players in any game is 50 elo points. The >average elo-distance in each sample is 25 elo points. The average elos for white >and for black differ by less than 0.5 of an elo point. A nice complement to this <= 50 elo stats would be to contrast it with > 50 elo stats. BTW, thanks for your efforts. This is all quite interesting. > >With this controlled database, the results are slightly different than before. >There is a small trend towards equalization as the games get longer. However >white still holds a commanding advantage over black, whether it is in games of >41+ plies, or 161+ plies. Over that range, white's winning percentage in >non-drawn games steadily declines at a slow rate from 59.7% to 56.7%. Likewise >the white score decreases from 55.7% to 53.5%. The prior database did not detect >this trend. However black does not achieve equality through length. > >As a side note, I expect computer games to show different results than >human-human games. Computers do not play for draws, which humans do on >occassion, especially if they are playing the black pieces. Computers do not get >tired and are not intimidated by very long drawn out equal positions. They still >go for the win and invariably only draw if the draw is forced. Anyway, that is >for a different study someday when I can find a computer-computer database with >accurate elo values. > >I wish I could paste my excel spreadsheet, but the formatting gets messed up >here. So I will state the results methodically: > >Plies >= 41 >Games: 63687 (100.00%) >Average White Elo: 2478.42 >Average Black Elo: 2477.96 >Average Elo Distance: 25.38 >White Wins: 22228 (34.9%) >Draws: 26441 (41.5%) >Black Wins: 15018 (23.6%) >White Score: 55.7% >Black Score: 44.3% >Non-Drawn Games: 37246 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 59.7% > >Plies >= 61 >Games: 50383 (79.11%) >Average White Elo: 2476.91 >Average Black Elo: 2476.49 >Average Elo Distance: 25.35 >White Wins: 18888 (37.5%) >Draws: 18441 (36.6%) >Black Wins: 13054 (25.9%) >White Score: 55.8% >Black Score: 44.2% >Non-Drawn Games: 31942 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 59.1% > >Plies >= 81 >Games: 32476 (50.99%) >Average White Elo: 2477.66 >Average Black Elo: 2477.37 >Average Elo Distance: 25.41 >White Wins: 11728 (36.1%) >Draws: 12522 (38.6%) >Black Wins: 8226 (25.3%) >White Score: 55.4% >Black Score: 44.6% >Non-Drawn Games: 19954 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 58.8% > >Plies >= 101 >Games: 17198 (27.00%) >Average White Elo: 2477.51 >Average Black Elo: 2477.32 >Average Elo Distance: 25.41 >White Wins: 6063 (35.3%) >Draws: 6735 (39.2%) >Black Wins: 4400 (25.6%) >White Score: 54.8% >Black Score: 45.2% >Non-Drawn Games: 10463 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.9% > >Plies >= 121 >Games: 8158 (12.81%) >Average White Elo: 2479.62 >Average Black Elo: 2479.48 >Average Elo Distance: 25.38 >White Wins: 2774 (34.0%) >Draws: 3366 (41.3%) >Black Wins: 2018 (24.7%) >White Score: 54.6% >Black Score: 45.4% >Non-Drawn Games: 4792 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.9% > >Plies >= 141 >Games: 3484 (5.47%) >Average White Elo: 2477.20 >Average Black Elo: 2476.76 >Average Elo Distance: 25.20 >White Wins: 1121 (32.2%) >Draws: 1522 (43.7%) >Black Wins: 841 (24.1%) >White Score: 54.0% >Black Score: 46.0% >Non-Drawn Games: 1962 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.1% > >Plies >= 161 >Games: 1469 (2.31%) >Average White Elo: 2483.07 >Average Black Elo: 2482.44 >Average Elo Distance: 25.19 >White Wins: 440 (30.0%) >Draws: 693 (47.2%) >Black Wins: 336 (22.9%) >White Score: 53.5% >Black Score: 46.5% >Non-Drawn Games: 776 >White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 56.7%
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