Author: Ricardo Gibert
Date: 08:31:23 02/26/05
Go up one level in this thread
On February 26, 2005 at 10:52:02, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >On February 26, 2005 at 09:28:01, Norm Pollock wrote: > >>I now have the tools I needed to redo this study and do it with more control >>over relative elo values. Elo differences are not an issue with this new >>database. >> >>This new database consists of 63,687 long time-control human-human games, all >>with elo ratings for both players, both players 2300+, dates of games from Jan >>01, 1991 to Dec 26,2004. >> >>The maximum elo-distance between the players in any game is 50 elo points. The >>average elo-distance in each sample is 25 elo points. The average elos for white >>and for black differ by less than 0.5 of an elo point. > >A nice complement to this <= 50 elo stats would be to contrast it with > 50 elo >stats. > >BTW, thanks for your efforts. This is all quite interesting. > It would also be interesting to do this type of study on individual players. For example, contrasting such stats on say Karpov with perhaps Tal. >> >>With this controlled database, the results are slightly different than before. >>There is a small trend towards equalization as the games get longer. However >>white still holds a commanding advantage over black, whether it is in games of >>41+ plies, or 161+ plies. Over that range, white's winning percentage in >>non-drawn games steadily declines at a slow rate from 59.7% to 56.7%. Likewise >>the white score decreases from 55.7% to 53.5%. The prior database did not detect >>this trend. However black does not achieve equality through length. >> >>As a side note, I expect computer games to show different results than >>human-human games. Computers do not play for draws, which humans do on >>occassion, especially if they are playing the black pieces. Computers do not get >>tired and are not intimidated by very long drawn out equal positions. They still >>go for the win and invariably only draw if the draw is forced. Anyway, that is >>for a different study someday when I can find a computer-computer database with >>accurate elo values. >> >>I wish I could paste my excel spreadsheet, but the formatting gets messed up >>here. So I will state the results methodically: >> >>Plies >= 41 >>Games: 63687 (100.00%) >>Average White Elo: 2478.42 >>Average Black Elo: 2477.96 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.38 >>White Wins: 22228 (34.9%) >>Draws: 26441 (41.5%) >>Black Wins: 15018 (23.6%) >>White Score: 55.7% >>Black Score: 44.3% >>Non-Drawn Games: 37246 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 59.7% >> >>Plies >= 61 >>Games: 50383 (79.11%) >>Average White Elo: 2476.91 >>Average Black Elo: 2476.49 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.35 >>White Wins: 18888 (37.5%) >>Draws: 18441 (36.6%) >>Black Wins: 13054 (25.9%) >>White Score: 55.8% >>Black Score: 44.2% >>Non-Drawn Games: 31942 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 59.1% >> >>Plies >= 81 >>Games: 32476 (50.99%) >>Average White Elo: 2477.66 >>Average Black Elo: 2477.37 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.41 >>White Wins: 11728 (36.1%) >>Draws: 12522 (38.6%) >>Black Wins: 8226 (25.3%) >>White Score: 55.4% >>Black Score: 44.6% >>Non-Drawn Games: 19954 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 58.8% >> >>Plies >= 101 >>Games: 17198 (27.00%) >>Average White Elo: 2477.51 >>Average Black Elo: 2477.32 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.41 >>White Wins: 6063 (35.3%) >>Draws: 6735 (39.2%) >>Black Wins: 4400 (25.6%) >>White Score: 54.8% >>Black Score: 45.2% >>Non-Drawn Games: 10463 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.9% >> >>Plies >= 121 >>Games: 8158 (12.81%) >>Average White Elo: 2479.62 >>Average Black Elo: 2479.48 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.38 >>White Wins: 2774 (34.0%) >>Draws: 3366 (41.3%) >>Black Wins: 2018 (24.7%) >>White Score: 54.6% >>Black Score: 45.4% >>Non-Drawn Games: 4792 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.9% >> >>Plies >= 141 >>Games: 3484 (5.47%) >>Average White Elo: 2477.20 >>Average Black Elo: 2476.76 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.20 >>White Wins: 1121 (32.2%) >>Draws: 1522 (43.7%) >>Black Wins: 841 (24.1%) >>White Score: 54.0% >>Black Score: 46.0% >>Non-Drawn Games: 1962 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 57.1% >> >>Plies >= 161 >>Games: 1469 (2.31%) >>Average White Elo: 2483.07 >>Average Black Elo: 2482.44 >>Average Elo Distance: 25.19 >>White Wins: 440 (30.0%) >>Draws: 693 (47.2%) >>Black Wins: 336 (22.9%) >>White Score: 53.5% >>Black Score: 46.5% >>Non-Drawn Games: 776 >>White Win percent in Non-Drawn Games: 56.7%
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.