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Subject: Re: EinStein wuerfelt nicht - No Blunders

Author: Theo van der Storm

Date: 16:00:03 03/06/05

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On March 06, 2005 at 13:11:25, Lars Bremer wrote:

>One should mention that Theo's last move was a blunder. Of course he has the
>chance of 0.5 to win the game now, but if he doesn't, your chance is much better
>than it should be because he captured your 4. That inceased your chance
>dramatically.
>
>Lars

It's nice to see other people become interested in the game!
It is more subtle then you (OR EVEN INGO!) thought.

Let's have a look at 6d2xc3?
x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.
x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 2/6 * 5/6 = 50/216

Let's have a look at 6d2-d3
x6 moves in case of 5(but not the first time) or 6.
x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 1/6 * 1/6 * 2/6 =  2/216
x4 moves in case of 2, 3, 4 or 5.
x4 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 4/6 * 2/6 * 4/6 = 32/216
giving a total of                                   34/216.

Let's have a look at the move I played: 6d2xc2!
x6 moves in case of 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.
x6 can reach the corner in 3 ply: 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 = 25/216

The subtlety is in the TACTICS of the first move of x4 after 6d2-d3.
It goes to d1 leaving it only half as vulnerable to capture as d2 would be!

Conclusion: My move was optimal :-)

Theo



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