Author: Timothy J. Frohlick
Date: 20:09:04 01/29/99
That is a quote from Earl Hunt from 1975. Eliot Hearst in "Chess Thinking: Man versus Machine" in 1976, states that " A computer chessmaster or expert is not likely to emerge in the near future." His final statement was more revealing; " Perhaps our chances of success in producing a computer chessmaster in the twentieth or twenty-first century depend on how much more "man" we can put back into the machine--but this time in psychological rather than physical form." Now we are in the same position in 1999. This time we are not saying that the machines can't play at master level but instead can't really compete at the human grandmaster level. Dr. Hyatt has stated this in a related post. The more you say that something can't be done, the more you will have people trying to do it. I predict that we will have chess computers similar to stand alone units today that can beat Kasparov at 40/2 within the next 25 years. At that point we will give up trying to beat the machines and just bumble along and enjoy a nice friendly game with a buddy over a hot cup of coffee. The other alternative is to have chess computer drag races and keep on building better and faster machines--lightwave computers cooking in the UV range and computing 10 terabytes per second with 100 trillion move opening books and similar end game 8 to 9 piece databases. Of course, it won't prove anything if our own abilities turn to mush.
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