Author: Paul Richards
Date: 20:50:19 02/02/99
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On February 02, 1999 at 15:29:48, Terry Presgrove wrote: >So they have the technology in place to produce the 2 billion nps >but not the actual hardware manifested in a resurrected Deep Blue. >Reading between the lines that was my (limited) understanding also. Yes it's marketing, so was the original match. However I still think it is an interesting question, how strong a Deep Blue could be built today? Is 2 billion nps correct assuming same number of processor nodes? What is that then, 20 times faster? While I think Kasparov became fatigued, and also was somewhat handicapped by not being able to study prior games of the machine, I think even he would hesitate to accept a match with a machine 20X more powerful than the one he faced last time. If such a machine were to enter regular competition, I think that contrary to Kasparov's claim that he would crush it, it would crush him and all others. It might lose here and there until a few adjustments are made, but if it were an all out contest where the team refines the machine after each tournament, it would easily be the World Champion in short order, if not right out of the box. I also think that the reason that IBM might not want to do such a thing is not because it fears a loss to Kasparov and the marketing result, but rather if the machine became a regular competitor it would have to accept challenges from other supercomputers, and THAT is what would be frightening from a marketing standpoint.
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