Author: Mike Byrne
Date: 18:52:48 04/13/05
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On April 13, 2005 at 20:07:18, Walter Faxon wrote: >A brief article in "New Scientist" about 5 years ago suggested that future >quantum computers will be able to attack chess by doing the quantum equivalent >of a full-width search 300 ply or more deep. I googled today to find the >following material: > I think the word quantum understates the jump required to do a full width 300 plyu search. In the near future (next trm years), will continue to see a doubling of processor speed every two to three years. I also see a patternm of diminishing returns for the faster and speeds at these higher levels. Doubling the speed at 1800 might have provided us with 100 elo points (or more), Doubling the speed at 2300 ELO might have provided 50 elo points or so. Perhaps doubling the speed at 2800 might provide an ELO of 25 point gain (against humans). It is possible that computers 10 years from now will not be convincingly better against the top humans than they are today. Why is that ? Top human players bring a feel to the game that is very hard to quantify, program and measure that is beyond calculating abilities of even top programs. Naturally if there is a shift in the processor speed doubling every 2 to 3 years paradigm -- say from every 2 to 3 years to every 2 to 3 days - things may end upa lot different. But without that shift, my prediction that in the next 40 years - Chess ELO on a home PC <= Top 10 GM Elo under tournament time controls. Not too much different from where are today imo. I am probably in the minority with this opinion - and feel free to tell me how wrong I am! Waiting for Rebutal Regards, Michael
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