Author: gerold daniels
Date: 21:09:07 04/13/05
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On April 13, 2005 at 21:52:48, Mike Byrne wrote: >On April 13, 2005 at 20:07:18, Walter Faxon wrote: > >>A brief article in "New Scientist" about 5 years ago suggested that future >>quantum computers will be able to attack chess by doing the quantum equivalent >>of a full-width search 300 ply or more deep. I googled today to find the >>following material: >> > > >I think the word quantum understates the jump required to do a full width 300 >plyu search. In the near future (next trm years), will continue to see a >doubling of processor speed every two to three years. I also see a patternm of >diminishing returns for the faster and speeds at these higher levels. Doubling >the speed at 1800 might have provided us with 100 elo points (or more), >Doubling the speed at 2300 ELO might have provided 50 elo points or so. Perhaps >doubling the speed at 2800 might provide an ELO of 25 point gain (against >humans). It is possible that computers 10 years from now will not be >convincingly better against the top humans than they are today. Why is that ? >Top human players bring a feel to the game that is very hard to quantify, >program and measure that is beyond calculating abilities of even top programs. > >Naturally if there is a shift in the processor speed doubling every 2 to 3 years >paradigm -- say from every 2 to 3 years to every 2 to 3 days - things may end >upa lot different. But without that shift, my prediction that in the next 40 >years - Chess ELO on a home PC <= Top 10 GM Elo under tournament time controls. >Not too much different from where are today imo. > >I am probably in the minority with this opinion - and feel free to tell me how >wrong I am! > >Waiting for Rebutal Regards, > >Michael good evening MIchael. don,t you think with the new cell chip comming out it may speed things up a bit.
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