Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 03:46:43 05/12/05
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On May 12, 2005 at 01:33:12, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >To understand what such a game is worth >please study Heinz van Kempen's comments >about Ktulu 7.0 in the CEGT tourney: >http://www.chessfighters.de/cegt/html/comment_3.html Kurt, just a few remarks on Heinz being surprised through statistics. It is a very good example of a statistical survey. Under a thousand of games we see a real yoyo in the results. Is that a proof for uncertainty in this World? I don't think so. I think that normally people (also testers) simply ignore the Laws of Stats. Again, if you have so little games, yes, a thousand for thirty programs, that is little, then you must not be surprised about surprises. I want to comment on something more interesting. We could ask the question why the famous commercial machines don't have such a yoyo in their results. The answer is easy. Before such a program would be released, it has been tested in its stability. Sounds easy? yes, but this is the whole trick. Somewhere in the Sprechstunden (I believe) or in CSS I read something about the development of professional progs. How the results danced up and down dependig of the "testpositions" etc. Professionals do their tests before and - surprise? - amateurs do their tests with new updates. ;) I say that because in a real tournament Ktulu wouldn't winn a point against Shredder. Rolf >Shredder 9 is no doubt the best (available) engine >at the moment and no other (available) program will >be able to beat it in a match over 50 rounds at >a reasonable time control. Our Shredder9_Test, see >http://www.utzingerk.com/shredder9_test.htm >Kurt
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