Author: Dieter Buerssner
Date: 13:19:53 05/21/05
Go up one level in this thread
Some other interesting data point. During the match, it actually happened, that
Aristarch won 10 games in a row. Yace best 10 game statistic was 9 wins and 1
draw:
Extreme results:
worst result in 10: games 9990 to 9999: 0.000%
best result in 10: games 8964 to 8973: 95.000%
Monte Carlos simulation for 10 games with probabilities from the match until
13000 games yields:
Result of chess matches
Player A as white wins 42.1%, draws 24.5% and loses 33.4%
Player A as black wins 29.9%, draws 26.1% and loses 44.0%
Expected result: 48.6593% (as white 54.3612%, as black 42.9573%)
A match of 10 games was simulated 10000000 times by a Monte Carlo method
result probability p <= res. p > res.
0.0 - 10.0 ( 0.000%): 0.0070% 0.0070% 99.9930%
0.5 - 9.5 ( 5.000%): 0.0454% 0.0525% 99.9475%
1.0 - 9.0 ( 10.000%): 0.2021% 0.2546% 99.7455%
1.5 - 8.5 ( 15.000%): 0.6371% 0.8916% 99.1084%
2.0 - 8.0 ( 20.000%): 1.6065% 2.4981% 97.5019%
2.5 - 7.5 ( 25.000%): 3.3355% 5.8336% 94.1663%
3.0 - 7.0 ( 30.000%): 5.9077% 11.7413% 88.2587%
3.5 - 6.5 ( 35.000%): 8.9969% 20.7382% 79.2618%
4.0 - 6.0 ( 40.000%): 11.9928% 32.7310% 67.2690%
4.5 - 5.5 ( 45.000%): 13.9927% 46.7237% 53.2763%
5.0 - 5.0 ( 50.000%): 14.3959% 61.1197% 38.8803%
5.5 - 4.5 ( 55.000%): 12.9951% 74.1148% 25.8852%
6.0 - 4.0 ( 60.000%): 10.3671% 84.4819% 15.5181%
6.5 - 3.5 ( 65.000%): 7.2397% 91.7216% 8.2784%
7.0 - 3.0 ( 70.000%): 4.4154% 96.1369% 3.8631%
7.5 - 2.5 ( 75.000%): 2.3180% 98.4550% 1.5450%
8.0 - 2.0 ( 80.000%): 1.0322% 99.4871% 0.5129%
8.5 - 1.5 ( 85.000%): 0.3756% 99.8628% 0.1372%
9.0 - 1.0 ( 90.000%): 0.1112% 99.9740% 0.0260%
9.5 - 0.5 ( 95.000%): 0.0228% 99.9968% 0.0032%
10.0 - 0.0 (100.000%): 0.0032% 100.0000% 0.0000%
Average result of simulation 48.6589%
Regards,
Dieter
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