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Subject: Re: is hydra now stronger than deep blue?

Author: Roger D Davis

Date: 11:10:18 05/26/05

Go up one level in this thread


On May 26, 2005 at 05:09:05, Uri Blass wrote:

>On May 26, 2005 at 04:50:09, Uri Blass wrote:
>
>>On May 25, 2005 at 19:17:08, Roger D Davis wrote:
>>
>>>On May 25, 2005 at 16:05:20, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>
>>>>On May 25, 2005 at 15:49:57, Roger D Davis wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On May 25, 2005 at 15:06:40, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On May 25, 2005 at 13:35:59, Roger D Davis wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On May 25, 2005 at 13:10:34, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On May 25, 2005 at 12:58:46, Roger D Davis wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On May 25, 2005 at 05:35:14, emerson tan wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>s hydra now stronger than deep blue?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>We know Kasparov, even then, was a much stronger player than Adams is today. If
>>>>>>>>>Hydra, supposedly stronger than Deep Blue, loses to a much weaker player, then
>>>>>>>>>that provides a strong argument that Hydra is weaker than Deep Blue.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On the other hand, if Adams loses, then it says nothing about Hydra's strength
>>>>>>>>>relative to Deep Blue.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>I guess you could always argue that Deep Blue can beat Kasparov and Kasparov can
>>>>>>>>>beat Adams and Adams can beat Hydra and Hydra can beat Deep Blue, but it doesn't
>>>>>>>>>seem likely. Particularly if Adams can get a convincing score.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Roger
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>I think that you have no way to compare Adams of 2005 with Kasparov of 1997.
>>>>>>>>Humans today have more experience against computers relative to 1997 and it is
>>>>>>>>not clear to me that Kasparov of 1997 was stronger against computers relative to
>>>>>>>>Adams of 2005.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>I also think that the fact that Kasparov lost says nothing because the 2 games
>>>>>>>>that kasparov lost were because of stupid mistakes of him because of
>>>>>>>>psychological reasons(resigning in a drawn position and playing a line that he
>>>>>>>>was not ready to play).
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Hydra is also more known than Deeper blue was known at the time of Kasparov
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Kasparov could get no games of something similiar to deeper blue(deep thought
>>>>>>>>was clearly weaker) when Adams has no problem to get games of something similiar
>>>>>>>>to hydra.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>What I said was that it provides a strong argument. I don't think it's a matter
>>>>>>>of certainty. I think it's a matter of making probabilistic statements, and
>>>>>>>knowing their limitations. In addition to not knowing whether the Kasparov of
>>>>>>>1997 was stronger against computers relative to the Adams of 2005---as you
>>>>>>>pointed out---we don't know whether Deep Blue's style might have been
>>>>>>>particularly deadly to Kasparov for some reason, or whether Hydra's style might
>>>>>>>be particularly vulnerable to Adams, or whether Adams has been reading this
>>>>>>>bulletin board and picking up pointers on the weaknesses of computers. We don't
>>>>>>>even know how successfully Hsu's team managed to tune Deep Blue against
>>>>>>>Kasparov. Maybe it will eventually emerge that it's always possible to tune a
>>>>>>>strong enough hardware beast against any particular human and defeat him. Who
>>>>>>>knows. Maybe Kasparov wouldn't freak himself out today and lose with stupid
>>>>>>>mistakes and then again, maybe he would.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>So...lots of unknowns.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Comparisons are interesting and inevitable. Humans will find a way of making
>>>>>>>comparisons whether we want them to, or not. I think you can continue to 2nd
>>>>>>>guess yourself ad infinitum about most anything. I prefer not to do that and
>>>>>>>just stick with my statement that an Adams victory provides a strong argument
>>>>>>>that Hydra is weaker than Deep Blue. Does it establish it with certainty.
>>>>>>>Obviously not. But it agrees with commonsense, and that's the ruler that most
>>>>>>>people will bring to the interpretation if Adams wins. I think if you're looking
>>>>>>>for certainty, it's best to stick with mathematical proof. Everything else is
>>>>>>>fraught with contention.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Roger
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I think that one assumption that you make is wrong in all the discussion.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Adams is not much weaker player than Kaspparov and the rating difference between
>>>>>>them is only 75 elo.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Here is the fide rating list:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>1  Kasparov, Garry  g  RUS  2812  12  1963-04-13
>>>>>>2  Anand, Viswanathan  g  IND  2785  25  1969-12-11
>>>>>>3  Topalov, Veselin  g  BUL  2778  25  1975-03-15
>>>>>>4  Leko, Peter  g  HUN  2763  25  1979-09-08
>>>>>>5  Kramnik, Vladimir  g  RUS  2753  13  1975-06-25
>>>>>>6  Ivanchuk, Vassily  g  UKR  2739  17  1969-03-18
>>>>>>7  Adams, Michael  g  ENG  2737  25  1971-11-17
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>I think you're assuming that all ELO intervals are created equal.
>>>>>
>>>>>Kasparov is generally considered to be the most powerful player in the history
>>>>>of the game. There is no other player in the world so widely known. No other
>>>>>player commands the kind of fame that Kasparov does.
>>>>>
>>>>>Yet, in 1997, the year of the Deep Blue match, Kasparov was rated about 2795,
>>>>>less than what he is today.
>>>>>
>>>>>Historically, I'd bet that seldom has Kasparov been 75 points stronger than the
>>>>>#2 ranked player. Maybe never.
>>>>>
>>>>>So it's obvious that it takes 75 points or less to make a Kasparov.
>>>>>
>>>>>Roger
>>>>
>>>>Kasparov did not beat Karpov easily.
>>>>13-11,12.5-11.5,12-12 are results that I remember.
>>>>
>>>>Later Kasparov also had problems in the beginning of the match against anand and
>>>>the result was 4-4 and I remember that anand even won the first game in the
>>>>match.
>>>>
>>>>I think that Kasparov had never big advantage relative to player number 2 or
>>>>even player number 7.
>>>>He was better but only slighlty better.
>>>>
>>>>He could win convincingly(see the match against short) but also lose(see the
>>>>match against Kramnik).
>>>>
>>>>He could win a tournament but also could lose in a tournament and I remember
>>>>that Karpov won some tournament that kasparov said that the tournament is going
>>>>to show who is the real champion(Karpov was the fide champion at that time but
>>>>only because Kasparov and Short did not agree to accept the conditions of
>>>>fide).
>>>>
>>>>Uri
>>>
>>>One thing we can probably agree on: Since Deep Blue beat Kasparov and Kasparov
>>>beats Adams, then if Adams beats Hydra it becomes the commonsense position that
>>>Deep Blue is stronger than Hydra.
>>
>>I think that it is correct only if we have not the games
>>but based on analyzing the games deeper blue did blunders that even free
>>programs can avoid today at tournament time control on fast hardware.
>>
>>[D]R7/1r3kp1/1qQb1p1p/1p1PpP2/1Pp1B3/2P4P/6P1/6K1 w - - 0 1
>>
>>finding Kh1 and not Kf1 is easy for free programs like Fruit and Yace when
>>Deep Blue failed to find that move.
>>
>>I saw no impressive move in the games of deep blue against kasparov that top
>>programs need hours to find so I guess that the top programs of today are simply
>>better than Deep Blue.
>>
>>Uri
>
>I need to correct it for yace
>
>Yace finds Kh1 but later changes it's mind to Kf1
>I thought that it rejected Kf1 for the correct reason when it has in the pv Qe3
>but later it changes it's mind and has in the pv Qxc6 and not Qe3.
>
>Fruit seems to have no problem with that position.
>
>New game, 40'/40
>R7/1r3kp1/1qQb1p1p/1p1PpP2/1Pp1B3/2P4P/6P1/6K1 w - - 0 1
>
>Analysis by Yace 0.99.87:
>
>1.Qxb6 Rxb6
>  =  (0.13)   Depth: 1   00:00:00
>1.Kh2 Qxc6 2.dxc6
>  =  (0.24)   Depth: 1   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 1   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 1   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 2   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 2   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 3   00:00:00
>1.Qxb6 Rxb6 2.Ra7+ Bc7 3.Rxc7+ Kf8
>  ²  (0.28)   Depth: 3   00:00:00
>1.Qxb6 Rxb6 2.Ra7+ Be7 3.g3
>  ²  (0.33)   Depth: 3   00:00:00
>1.Qxb6 Rxb6 2.Ra7+ Be7 3.g3
>  ²  (0.33)   Depth: 3   00:00:00
>1.Qxb6 Rxb6 2.g3 h5 3.Ra7+ Be7
>  =  (0.24)   Depth: 4   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Ke7
>  =  (0.25)   Depth: 4   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rc7 3.g3
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 4   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rc7 3.g3
>  ²  (0.27)   Depth: 4   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Bc7 4.Rxc7+ Kf8
>  ²  (0.67)   Depth: 5   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Be7 4.Bd5+ Ke8 5.c7 Rc8
>  ²  (0.69)   Depth: 5   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Be7 4.Bd5+ Ke8 5.c7 Rc8
>  ²  (0.69)   Depth: 5   00:00:00
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Kf8 4.Rd7 Be7
>  ±  (0.72)   Depth: 6/16   00:00:00  21kN
>1.Kh2 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Be7 4.Bd5+ Ke8 5.c7 Rb6 6.c8Q+ Bd8
>  ±  (0.73)   Depth: 6/16   00:00:00  37kN
>1.Kh2 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Kf8 4.Rd7 Be7 5.c7 Rc8
>  ±  (0.81)   Depth: 6/16   00:00:00  40kN
>1.Kh2 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Kf8 4.Rd7 Be7 5.c7 Rc8
>  ±  (0.81)   Depth: 6/18   00:00:01  41kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Qd7+ Kg8 3.Ra7 Bf8 4.g3 Qf2+ 5.Bg2 Kh7 6.d6
>  ±  (0.71)   Depth: 7/18   00:00:01  120kN
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Kf8 4.Rd7 Kg8
>  ±  (0.72)   Depth: 7/18   00:00:01  133kN
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Kf8 4.Rd7 Be7 5.c7 Rc8
>  ±  (0.85)   Depth: 7/18   00:00:01  142kN
>1.Kf1 Qxc6 2.dxc6 Rb8 3.Ra7+ Kf8 4.Rd7 Be7 5.c7 Rc8
>  ±  (0.85)   Depth: 7/20   00:00:01  185kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Qd7+ Kg8 3.Ra7 Bf8 4.Qe6+ Kh7 5.Qf7 Qe3 6.Qg6+ Kh8
>  ±  (0.72)   Depth: 8/21   00:00:01  261kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Qd7+ Kg8 3.Ra7 Bf8 4.Qe6+ Kh7 5.Qf7 Qe3 6.Qg6+ Kh8
>  ±  (0.72)   Depth: 8/22   00:00:01  410kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Qd7+ Kg8 3.Ra7 Bf8 4.Qf7+ Kh7 5.Ke2 Rd8 6.Qg6+ Kg8 7.Rf7
>  ²  (0.64)   Depth: 9/22   00:00:01  561kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Be7 4.Ra7 h5 5.Bd5+ Kf8 6.c7 Ra8
>  ²  (0.65)   Depth: 9/22   00:00:01  907kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kg8 4.Ra7 Kh7 5.Rd7 Bf8 6.c7 Rc8
>  ±  (0.71)   Depth: 9/22   00:00:01  970kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kg8 4.Ra7 Kh7 5.Rd7 Bf8 6.c7 Rc8
>  ±  (0.71)   Depth: 9/26   00:00:02  1113kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kg8 4.Ra7 Kh7 5.Rd7 Bf8 6.c7 Rc8 7.g3
>  ±  (0.80)   Depth: 10/26   00:00:02  1479kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 h5 5.Rd7 Be7 6.c7 Bd8
>  ±  (0.81)   Depth: 10/30   00:00:02  2318kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7
>  ±  (0.83)   Depth: 10/30   00:00:02  2450kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7
>  ±  (0.83)   Depth: 10/30   00:00:02  2670kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Bd5 Rb8 6.Rf7+ Ke8 7.Rxg7 Rd8
>  ±  (1.03)   Depth: 11/32   00:00:03  4174kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Bd5 Rb8 6.Rf7+ Ke8 7.Rxg7 Rd8
>  ±  (1.03)   Depth: 11/34   00:00:03  4975kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rb8 6.Rd7 Be7 7.c7 Kg8
>  ±  (1.08)   Depth: 12/41   00:00:07  10063kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rb8 6.Rd7 Be7 7.c7 Rb7 8.c8Q+
>Kf7
>  ±  (1.09)   Depth: 12/41   00:00:08  10827kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Bb1
>  ±  (1.11)   Depth: 12/41   00:00:09  11882kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kg8 4.Ra7 Kh7 5.Rd7 Bf8 6.c7 Rb7 7.c8Q Kh8
>  ±  (1.12)   Depth: 12/41   00:00:11  14655kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kg8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rb8 6.Rd7 Rc8 7.Rxd6 Kh7
>  ±  (1.14)   Depth: 12/41   00:00:11  15138kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kg8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rb8 6.Rd7 Rc8 7.Rxd6 Kh7
>  ±  (1.14)   Depth: 12/41   00:00:11  15138kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.h4 Kg8 6.Rb7 Rb8 7.Rd7
>  ±  (0.93)   Depth: 13/45   00:00:15  20137kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rb8 6.Rd7 Rc8 7.Rxd6 Rc7
>  ±  (0.94)   Depth: 13/45   00:00:16  21682kN
>1.Kh2 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Ke8 6.Rxb5 Rc7 7.g3 h5 8.Ra5
>  +-  (1.50)   Depth: 13/46   00:00:23  30638kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rb8 6.Rd7 Rc8 7.Rxd6 h5
>  +-  (1.51)   Depth: 13/46   00:00:34  42727kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rc7 6.Rxb5 Ke8 7.g3 Bxb4 8.cxb4
>Ke7
>  +-  (1.53)   Depth: 13/46   00:00:39  48302kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 Rc7 6.Rxb5 Ke8 7.g3 Bxb4 8.cxb4
>Ke7
>  +-  (1.53)   Depth: 13/46   00:00:39  48546kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qe3 3.Qxd6 Re8 4.h4 Re7 5.Bf3 Qc1+ 6.Kf2 Qd2+ 7.Kg3 Qe1+ 8.Kh3
>Qh1+ 9.Kg4 e4 10.Qf4 exf3 11.Qxf3
>  ±  (1.31)   Depth: 14/46   00:02:04  140058kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Kh2 h5 6.Rb7 Rb8 7.Rd7 Rc8 8.Rxd6
>Kf7
>  ±  (1.32)   Depth: 14/54   00:02:36  175070kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 h5 6.Rxb5 Ke7 7.Ra5 Rc7 8.g4 h4
>  +-  (1.45)   Depth: 14/54   00:02:44  184404kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Rb7 h5 6.Rxb5 Ke7 7.Ra5 Rc7 8.g4 h4
>  +-  (1.45)   Depth: 14/54   00:02:44  184837kN
>1.Kh1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Rc8 4.Ra5 Ke8 5.Kh2 Bc7 6.Rxb5 Rb8 7.Rc5 g6 8.fxg6
>Ke7
>  +-  (1.48)   Depth: 15/54   00:03:02  204824kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qe3 3.Qxd6 Re8 4.h4 Re7 5.Bf3 Qc1+ 6.Kf2 Qd2+ 7.Kg3 Qe1+ 8.Kg4
>e4 9.Qd8 Rd7 10.Qxd7+ Kf8
>  +-  (1.49)   Depth: 15/59   00:04:09  277144kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qe3 3.Qxd6 Re8 4.h4
>  +-  (1.49)   Depth: 15/59   00:05:07  339937kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qe3 3.Qxd6 Re8 4.h4
>  +-  (1.49)   Depth: 15/59   00:05:44  380942kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Bd5 Rc7 6.Ra8+ Ke7 7.Rg8 h5 8.Rxg7+
>Ke8 9.Rg8+ Bf8 10.Rh8 Rg7 11.Rxh5 Bxb4 12.cxb4
>  +-  (1.81)   Depth: 16/59   00:10:07  653799kN
>1.Kf1 Rb8 2.Ra6 Qxc6 3.dxc6 Kf8 4.Ra7 Rc8 5.Bd5 Rc7 6.Ra8+ Ke7 7.Rg8 h5 8.Rxg7+
>Ke8 9.Rg8+ Bf8 10.Rh8 Rg7 11.Rxh5 Bxb4 12.cxb4
>  +-  (1.81)   Depth: 16/61   00:11:43  766649kN
>
>(,  26.05.2005)
>
>Uri


If a single match can't prove anything, then how can some small set of
positions? If you can't generalize from a single match, then how can you
generalize from a few positions?

However, I do agree that it would be interesting to feed Deep Blue's games into
Hydra for a few weeks of analysis.

Roger






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