Author: Norm Pollock
Date: 07:40:03 06/10/05
Go up one level in this thread
On June 10, 2005 at 10:30:10, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 10, 2005 at 10:11:03, stuart taylor wrote: > >>The two Shredder programs which are 7.04 and 9.00, ought to both participate in >>any important computer events, I firmly believe. They are both very different, >>and have both not yet been fully assessed, and therefore, I believe the results >>of both ought to be of great interest. Each one of them are about 100% >>"interesting", but both, in same tournaments, are let's say, 300% interesting, >>in fact, many puzzling questions would cause discomfort if they don't both play >>in same events. >>Shredder 8, probably doesn't matter all that much, if you have the above two. >>Hopefully, others will agree, and this will be done! > >Imagine a contest with ten engines of equal ability, labelled A through J. > >The odds of winning are 10% for any one engine. >But now, suppose for engine C, that we allow a second engine called C-1 of about >the same ability. Now the odds for C with either C or C-1 have become 2/11 = >18% > >Suppose we allow 5 variants of the C engine C, C-1, C-2, C-3, C-4 >Now the odds are 5/14 = 35.7% > >Suppose we allow 5000 variants. > >Now the odds are 5000/5009 = 99.8% > >Suppose we owe N variants. > >Now the odds are N/(N+9). > >If N is 1 million, then the odds of winning the contest are now >99.9991% > >Keep in mind that all engines are of the same ability, but now engine C is >virtually assured of winning with one of the variants. > >Having more than one entry is clearly a very unfair advantage. So what are the odds on CM IX and / or CM X is this: http://www.talkchess.com/forums/1/message.html?430488
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