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Subject: Re: Interesting opening statistics for man-machine competitions

Author: Ricardo Gibert

Date: 21:15:49 06/25/05

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On June 25, 2005 at 15:33:30, Darrel Briley wrote:

>On June 25, 2005 at 14:47:32, Robin Smith wrote:
>
>>In a previous thread some people have been repeatedly stating that choosing
>>1...e5 as a human’s defense against 1.e5 is a very poor choice. They said
>>practice has repeatedly shown this. I posted some games to the contrary and was
>>accused of "cherry picking" (which was true enough). So I decided to go back and
>>look at all the recent man-machine matches between strong humans and strong
>>computers. The results were a surprise, even for me. The matches I looked at
>>were:
>>
>>Deep Blue-Kasparov 1996, Deep Blue-Kasparov 1997, Deep Fritz-Kramnik 2002,
>>Rebel-van Wely 2002, X3D Fritz-Kasparov 2003, Hiarcs-Bareev 2003 and
>>Junior-Kasparov 2003
>>
>>I may have missed some matches, but if I did it was not my intention or cherry
>>picking. I deliberately excluded Hydra-Adams, since the discussions have been
>>about Adam's supposedly poor decision making process in choosing 1...e5 as his
>>defense of choice, and this decision had to be made prior to the match. I also
>>only looked at games where the computer played white, since that is what the
>>ruckus has all been about.
>>
>>The results from the above matches were:
>>
>>1.e4 e5    white (computer) scored 50% in 5 games
>>1.e4 other white (computer) scored 68% in 11 games
>>not 1.e4   white (computer) scored 67% in 3 games
>>
>>If I were Adams, and 1...e5 was the mainstay of my opening repertior, I would
>>not see anything in these statistics to change my mind. Perhaps people who have
>>been vociferous about Adams "poor opening choice" may have been coloring their
>>thinking based on Crafty blitz games on ICC. These are hardly the games upon
>>which to make ones opening choices for a serious tournament time control match
>>with money on the line.
>>
>>Below is a table of results for the games. Scores are from the white (computer)
>>perspective.
>>
>>               opening:	1.e4 e5		  1.e4 other	   not 1.e4
>>	event		score  # games	  score	 # games  score	# games
>>Deep Blue-Kasparov 1996	0       1	  1.5	 2	   0	 0
>>Deep Blue-Kasparov 1997	1	1	  1.5	 2	   0	 0
>>Deep Fritz-Kramnik 2002	0.5	2	  0	 0	   1.5	 2
>>Rebel-van Wely 2002	0	0	  2	 2	   0	 0
>>X3D Fritz-Kasparov 2003	1	1	  0	 0	   0.5	 1
>>Hiarcs-Bareev 2003	0	0	  1	 2	   0	 0
>>Junior-Kasparov 2003	0	0	  1.5	 3	   0	 0
>>	total		2.5	5	  7.5	 11	   2	 3
>>	score		50%		  68%		   67%
>>
>>-Robin
>
>Perhaps there isn't anything in these statistics to make Adams deviate from his
>opening repetoire, but there's plenty of reason given his results.
>
>                               DB

20/20 hindsight can make us all look brilliant.



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