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Subject: Re: Did GM Michael Adams 2737 honestly lose?

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 15:54:24 06/26/05

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On June 26, 2005 at 18:08:49, Mark Young wrote:

>On June 26, 2005 at 16:25:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>
>>On June 26, 2005 at 15:02:56, I Hart SanQuentin wrote:
>>
>>>On June 26, 2005 at 14:27:44, stuart taylor wrote:
>>>
>>>>No, of cause not! Not enough games! It needs atLEAST 500 games between the two
>>>>to get a rough idea.
>>>>
>>>>S.Taylor
>>>
>>>No not 500 games a 1,275,326 games otherwise there is no likelyhood that the
>>>comp is better than mickey, it was just the most amazing streak of bad luck you
>>>ever saw that he is down 4.5 to .5
>>
>>
>>In case you made ironic remarks let me state that indeed such a result does not
>>mean anything (in reality and also in statistics). You dont believe me? Well,
>>remember the match between JUNIOR and FRITZ a couple of years ago. JUNIOR was
>>clearly leading and FRITZ still won the match. In short: 6 games is nothing
>>relevant.
>
>As you most likely know. It is not just the number of games. It is the score
>that also must be considered. The closer the score the more games that are
>needed to show which player is really stronger.
>
>If GM Adams draws tomorrows game, and the score ends 5-1 for Hydra. There is a
>almost a 90% certainty that Hydra was stronger then GM Adams. Who is #7 in the
>world.
>
>If GM Adam loses, then we can say with even higher certainty then 90%. That
>Hydra is stronger then GM Adams. IF Hydra loses tomorrow with a 4.5 - 1.5
>winning score for Hydra, I agree. The results are nothing relevant. Meaning you
>could not say that Hydra is stronger then GM Adams with any kind of great
>certainty.


Mark, you are wrong with your statement. For 6 games any score is without
relevant meaning. You cant assume any certainty with 6 games. But of course
score means something and you need less games for a clear score. Again, dont you
remember the famous qualification match in Cadaques between JUNIOR and FRITZ?
JUNIOR led by 4-0 or was it 5-0? FRITZ still won.

But honestly in case of Adams I wouldn't expect anything in his favour. :)



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