Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 15:54:24 06/26/05
Go up one level in this thread
On June 26, 2005 at 18:08:49, Mark Young wrote: >On June 26, 2005 at 16:25:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >>On June 26, 2005 at 15:02:56, I Hart SanQuentin wrote: >> >>>On June 26, 2005 at 14:27:44, stuart taylor wrote: >>> >>>>No, of cause not! Not enough games! It needs atLEAST 500 games between the two >>>>to get a rough idea. >>>> >>>>S.Taylor >>> >>>No not 500 games a 1,275,326 games otherwise there is no likelyhood that the >>>comp is better than mickey, it was just the most amazing streak of bad luck you >>>ever saw that he is down 4.5 to .5 >> >> >>In case you made ironic remarks let me state that indeed such a result does not >>mean anything (in reality and also in statistics). You dont believe me? Well, >>remember the match between JUNIOR and FRITZ a couple of years ago. JUNIOR was >>clearly leading and FRITZ still won the match. In short: 6 games is nothing >>relevant. > >As you most likely know. It is not just the number of games. It is the score >that also must be considered. The closer the score the more games that are >needed to show which player is really stronger. > >If GM Adams draws tomorrows game, and the score ends 5-1 for Hydra. There is a >almost a 90% certainty that Hydra was stronger then GM Adams. Who is #7 in the >world. > >If GM Adam loses, then we can say with even higher certainty then 90%. That >Hydra is stronger then GM Adams. IF Hydra loses tomorrow with a 4.5 - 1.5 >winning score for Hydra, I agree. The results are nothing relevant. Meaning you >could not say that Hydra is stronger then GM Adams with any kind of great >certainty. Mark, you are wrong with your statement. For 6 games any score is without relevant meaning. You cant assume any certainty with 6 games. But of course score means something and you need less games for a clear score. Again, dont you remember the famous qualification match in Cadaques between JUNIOR and FRITZ? JUNIOR led by 4-0 or was it 5-0? FRITZ still won. But honestly in case of Adams I wouldn't expect anything in his favour. :)
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