Author: Mark Young
Date: 17:03:28 06/26/05
Go up one level in this thread
On June 26, 2005 at 18:54:24, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On June 26, 2005 at 18:08:49, Mark Young wrote: > >>On June 26, 2005 at 16:25:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >> >>>On June 26, 2005 at 15:02:56, I Hart SanQuentin wrote: >>> >>>>On June 26, 2005 at 14:27:44, stuart taylor wrote: >>>> >>>>>No, of cause not! Not enough games! It needs atLEAST 500 games between the two >>>>>to get a rough idea. >>>>> >>>>>S.Taylor >>>> >>>>No not 500 games a 1,275,326 games otherwise there is no likelyhood that the >>>>comp is better than mickey, it was just the most amazing streak of bad luck you >>>>ever saw that he is down 4.5 to .5 >>> >>> >>>In case you made ironic remarks let me state that indeed such a result does not >>>mean anything (in reality and also in statistics). You dont believe me? Well, >>>remember the match between JUNIOR and FRITZ a couple of years ago. JUNIOR was >>>clearly leading and FRITZ still won the match. In short: 6 games is nothing >>>relevant. >> >>As you most likely know. It is not just the number of games. It is the score >>that also must be considered. The closer the score the more games that are >>needed to show which player is really stronger. >> >>If GM Adams draws tomorrows game, and the score ends 5-1 for Hydra. There is a >>almost a 90% certainty that Hydra was stronger then GM Adams. Who is #7 in the >>world. >> >>If GM Adam loses, then we can say with even higher certainty then 90%. That >>Hydra is stronger then GM Adams. IF Hydra loses tomorrow with a 4.5 - 1.5 >>winning score for Hydra, I agree. The results are nothing relevant. Meaning you >>could not say that Hydra is stronger then GM Adams with any kind of great >>certainty. > > >Mark, you are wrong with your statement. For 6 games any score is without >relevant meaning. You cant assume any certainty with 6 games. But of course >score means something and you need less games for a clear score. Again, dont you >remember the famous qualification match in Cadaques between JUNIOR and FRITZ? >JUNIOR led by 4-0 or was it 5-0? FRITZ still won. > >But honestly in case of Adams I wouldn't expect anything in his favour. :) I am sorry.... I gave that stats, and they are correct. With a draw tomorrow you can say with 90% confidence that Hydra is better then GM Adams. That means a 1 in 10 chance, GM Adams my be better then Hydra. With a win tomorrow for Hydra the chances are even lower for GM Adams. GM Adams must win tomorrow for this match to not have much meaning. You can accept this or reject it.....be the stats are correct.
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