Author: Rolf Tueschen
Date: 18:06:15 06/26/05
Go up one level in this thread
On June 26, 2005 at 20:03:28, Mark Young wrote: >On June 26, 2005 at 18:54:24, Rolf Tueschen wrote: > >>On June 26, 2005 at 18:08:49, Mark Young wrote: >> >>>On June 26, 2005 at 16:25:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>> >>>>On June 26, 2005 at 15:02:56, I Hart SanQuentin wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 26, 2005 at 14:27:44, stuart taylor wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>No, of cause not! Not enough games! It needs atLEAST 500 games between the two >>>>>>to get a rough idea. >>>>>> >>>>>>S.Taylor >>>>> >>>>>No not 500 games a 1,275,326 games otherwise there is no likelyhood that the >>>>>comp is better than mickey, it was just the most amazing streak of bad luck you >>>>>ever saw that he is down 4.5 to .5 >>>> >>>> >>>>In case you made ironic remarks let me state that indeed such a result does not >>>>mean anything (in reality and also in statistics). You dont believe me? Well, >>>>remember the match between JUNIOR and FRITZ a couple of years ago. JUNIOR was >>>>clearly leading and FRITZ still won the match. In short: 6 games is nothing >>>>relevant. >>> >>>As you most likely know. It is not just the number of games. It is the score >>>that also must be considered. The closer the score the more games that are >>>needed to show which player is really stronger. >>> >>>If GM Adams draws tomorrows game, and the score ends 5-1 for Hydra. There is a >>>almost a 90% certainty that Hydra was stronger then GM Adams. Who is #7 in the >>>world. >>> >>>If GM Adam loses, then we can say with even higher certainty then 90%. That >>>Hydra is stronger then GM Adams. IF Hydra loses tomorrow with a 4.5 - 1.5 >>>winning score for Hydra, I agree. The results are nothing relevant. Meaning you >>>could not say that Hydra is stronger then GM Adams with any kind of great >>>certainty. >> >> >>Mark, you are wrong with your statement. For 6 games any score is without >>relevant meaning. You cant assume any certainty with 6 games. But of course >>score means something and you need less games for a clear score. Again, dont you >>remember the famous qualification match in Cadaques between JUNIOR and FRITZ? >>JUNIOR led by 4-0 or was it 5-0? FRITZ still won. >> >>But honestly in case of Adams I wouldn't expect anything in his favour. :) > >I am sorry.... I gave that stats, and they are correct. With a draw tomorrow you >can say with 90% confidence that Hydra is better then GM Adams. That means a 1 >in 10 chance, GM Adams my be better then Hydra. With a win tomorrow for Hydra >the chances are even lower for GM Adams. GM Adams must win tomorrow for this >match to not have much meaning. > >You can accept this or reject it.....be the stats are correct. No. You forget about the combination of the two factors score and number of games.
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