Author: Mark Young
Date: 18:11:02 06/26/05
Go up one level in this thread
On June 26, 2005 at 21:06:15, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >On June 26, 2005 at 20:03:28, Mark Young wrote: > >>On June 26, 2005 at 18:54:24, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >> >>>On June 26, 2005 at 18:08:49, Mark Young wrote: >>> >>>>On June 26, 2005 at 16:25:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 26, 2005 at 15:02:56, I Hart SanQuentin wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 26, 2005 at 14:27:44, stuart taylor wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>No, of cause not! Not enough games! It needs atLEAST 500 games between the two >>>>>>>to get a rough idea. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>S.Taylor >>>>>> >>>>>>No not 500 games a 1,275,326 games otherwise there is no likelyhood that the >>>>>>comp is better than mickey, it was just the most amazing streak of bad luck you >>>>>>ever saw that he is down 4.5 to .5 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>In case you made ironic remarks let me state that indeed such a result does not >>>>>mean anything (in reality and also in statistics). You dont believe me? Well, >>>>>remember the match between JUNIOR and FRITZ a couple of years ago. JUNIOR was >>>>>clearly leading and FRITZ still won the match. In short: 6 games is nothing >>>>>relevant. >>>> >>>>As you most likely know. It is not just the number of games. It is the score >>>>that also must be considered. The closer the score the more games that are >>>>needed to show which player is really stronger. >>>> >>>>If GM Adams draws tomorrows game, and the score ends 5-1 for Hydra. There is a >>>>almost a 90% certainty that Hydra was stronger then GM Adams. Who is #7 in the >>>>world. >>>> >>>>If GM Adam loses, then we can say with even higher certainty then 90%. That >>>>Hydra is stronger then GM Adams. IF Hydra loses tomorrow with a 4.5 - 1.5 >>>>winning score for Hydra, I agree. The results are nothing relevant. Meaning you >>>>could not say that Hydra is stronger then GM Adams with any kind of great >>>>certainty. >>> >>> >>>Mark, you are wrong with your statement. For 6 games any score is without >>>relevant meaning. You cant assume any certainty with 6 games. But of course >>>score means something and you need less games for a clear score. Again, dont you >>>remember the famous qualification match in Cadaques between JUNIOR and FRITZ? >>>JUNIOR led by 4-0 or was it 5-0? FRITZ still won. >>> >>>But honestly in case of Adams I wouldn't expect anything in his favour. :) >> >>I am sorry.... I gave that stats, and they are correct. With a draw tomorrow you >>can say with 90% confidence that Hydra is better then GM Adams. That means a 1 >>in 10 chance, GM Adams my be better then Hydra. With a win tomorrow for Hydra >>the chances are even lower for GM Adams. GM Adams must win tomorrow for this >>match to not have much meaning. >> >>You can accept this or reject it.....be the stats are correct. > > >No. You forget about the combination of the two factors score and number of >games. I am sorry again, but you are incorrect. To calculate the stats. You must have the number of games, and the score. The stats are the stats. As I said before. The stats are correct, but I see you want to reject the stats....
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