Author: Christos Gitsis
Date: 18:12:15 07/02/05
Go up one level in this thread
On July 02, 2005 at 12:45:28, Roger D Davis wrote: >On July 01, 2005 at 21:06:30, Christos Gitsis wrote: > >>Adams has dropped to number 13 of the FIDE rating list (July 1). >>He lost 18 points from 25 games. >>He is clearly not in good form right now. >> >>Rank Name Title Country Rating Games B-Day >> 1 Kasparov, Garry g RUS 2812 0 1963-04-13 >> 2 Anand, Viswanathan g IND 2788 18 1969-12-11 >> 3 Topalov, Veselin g BUL 2788 10 1975-03-15 >> 4 Leko, Peter g HUN 2763 0 1979-09-08 >> 5 Ivanchuk, Vassily g UKR 2752 25 1969-03-18 >> 6 Kramnik, Vladimir g RUS 2744 12 1975-06-25 >> 7 Svidler, Peter g RUS 2738 26 1976-06-17 >> 8 Polgar, Judit g HUN 2735 10 1976-07-23 >> 9 Bacrot, Etienne g FRA 2729 13 1983-01-22 >> 10 Aronian, Levon g ARM 2724 30 1982-10-06 >> 11 Gelfand, Boris g ISR 2724 12 1968-06-24 >> 12 Grischuk, Alexander g RUS 2720 17 1983-10-31 >> 13 Adams, Michael g ENG 2719 25 1971-11-17 >> 14 Morozevich, Alexander g RUS 2707 11 1977-07-18 >> 15 Shirov, Alexei g ESP 2705 29 1972-07-04 >> 16 Akopian, Vladimir g ARM 2705 9 1971-12-07 >> 17 Ponomariov, Ruslan g UKR 2704 10 1983-10-11 >> 18 Bologan, Viktor g MDA 2700 30 1971-12-14 >> 19 Kamsky, Gata g USA 2700 0 1974-06-02 >> 20 Dreev, Alexey g RUS 2698 20 1969-01-30 > > >But it's really a minor fluctuation. Moving from 7th to 13th in the rankings >looks like a large change, but that's only because the other players are so >closely ranked. 18 points probably aren't significant unless hundreds of games >are played. I'm not sure questions about whether Adams is in good form or bad >form are really statistically defensible, particularly at a 95% confidence >interval. > >Roger Hello Roger, I have to disagree with that. In such high levels 18 points rating change within three months is usually considered a big change, since at such high levels the ratings are relatively stable (parameter K=10). Of course, grandmasters can't play hundreds of rated games within three months, so the 25 games the only data available to us. Adams' opponents in these 25 games had an average rating of 2652. He scored 10.5/25 against them, which gives an average performance of 2595. This leads me to believe that during the last three months he did not play like a super GM would play, but considerably weaker. Certainly he was _not_ number seven in the world (as we were hearing) when he played against Hydra, because this rating list takes into account games played in March, April and May. So it is published officially in July 1st, but in reality it is valid since June 1st. Regards Christos
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