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Subject: Question about error bars

Author: Keith Hyams

Date: 10:50:49 08/10/05


o  	Program  	Score  	%  	Av.Op.  	Elo  	+  	-  	Draws
1 	Fruit 2.1 	159.0 / 270 	58.9 	2469 	2532 	37 	35 	31.1 %
2 	Chess Tiger 15.0 	15.0 / 30 	50.0 	2532 	2532 	109 	109 	33.3 %
3 	The King 3.33 	14.0 / 30 	46.7 	2532 	2509 	80 	130 	46.7 %
4 	Fritz 8 	14.0 / 30 	46.7 	2532 	2509 	80 	130 	46.7 %
5 	List 512 	13.5 / 30 	45.0 	2532 	2498 	110 	127 	23.3 %
6 	Junior 9 	13.5 / 30 	45.0 	2532 	2498 	110 	127 	23.3 %
7 	Ruffian 2.1.0 	12.5 / 30 	41.7 	2532 	2474 	125 	122 	16.7 %
8 	Toga II 0.93 	10.5 / 30 	35.0 	2532 	2425 	91 	112 	43.3 %
9 	Hiarcs 9 	9.5 / 30 	31.7 	2532 	2399 	131 	108 	23.3 %
10 	Aristarch 4.50 	8.5 / 30 	28.3 	2532 	2371 	137 	104 	23.3 %


The chart above has been copied from Kurt Utzinger's website. Kurt has not
objected to my using it. (Apologies to Kurt for poor formatting)

The error bars (headed + and - ) have been produced with Elostat. My feeling is
that, at any given number of games, the possibility of an engine being rated x
points too high should be equal to the possibility of the engine being rated x
points too low. Therefore if there is a possibility that Aristarch is  rated 137
points too high, I would expect there to be an equal number for the possible low
rating - At any given sampling point I would expect error bars of the same
length above and below zero.

Would somebody please explain to me how Aristarch can be +137 -104.

                             	Regards
                                           Keith



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