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Subject: Re: WCCC Guessing Game

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 11:05:54 08/11/05

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Another note.  I don't think anyone properly recognizes the importance of the
"luck" factor in where you finish in these events.

In a 9 round match, it is pretty likely that one win or loss will be based
solely on luck.  Just got deep enough on one key move.  Almost got deep enough
on one key move.  Just barely chose the wrong opening choice at a key point in
the game.  Etc.

If you are lucky and win against a favorite, your overall chances just went up.
If you are unlucky and lose against someone you should have beaten, your overall
chances just went down.

I've seen that happen way too many times to ignore the "luckishness" of the
game.  Yes skill is important.  But without a little good luck to go along with
it, skill isn't always enough.  For example, being lucky enough that the TD
makes an insane decision about a draw claim and changes the overall tournament
winner.  :)




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