Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 11:36:26 08/11/05
Go up one level in this thread
On August 11, 2005 at 14:05:54, Robert Hyatt wrote: I've never seen a beginner win an event, so in that respect never a non-favourite was the 'lucky' winner. This is just a lame excuse yours to apology for possible disaster. Personally i give crafty 0%, simply because last 16 years the winner of the world championship has been a program with the machine local at the tournament site. >Another note. I don't think anyone properly recognizes the importance of the >"luck" factor in where you finish in these events. > >In a 9 round match, it is pretty likely that one win or loss will be based >solely on luck. Just got deep enough on one key move. Almost got deep enough >on one key move. Just barely chose the wrong opening choice at a key point in >the game. Etc. > >If you are lucky and win against a favorite, your overall chances just went up. >If you are unlucky and lose against someone you should have beaten, your overall >chances just went down. > >I've seen that happen way too many times to ignore the "luckishness" of the >game. Yes skill is important. But without a little good luck to go along with >it, skill isn't always enough. For example, being lucky enough that the TD >makes an insane decision about a draw claim and changes the overall tournament >winner. :)
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