Author: Peter Berger
Date: 15:21:33 08/29/05
Go up one level in this thread
On August 29, 2005 at 10:40:54, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >On August 29, 2005 at 06:36:42, Jorge Pichard wrote: > >> Engine Score >>1: Spike10 16/26 1=010==1===110=110110=11== >>2: Zappa 10/26 0=101==0===001=001001=00== ··············· > > After only 26 games and a winning score of 61 % > it's too early for such a statement I think. > Kurt That's true. But only barely. Assuming that everything is set up properly, games are independent events ( aka no learning) and that white and black have same likeliness to win (just for sake of correctness, I am actually pretty sure this doesn't make a major difference), the result is good enough to claim that Spike is better with 90% confidence. And only one more win in the following game would have been enough for 95% confidence in fact ;) . How do you feel about this one? A 1 1 1 1 1 B 0 0 0 0 0 More games needed? Not if you can live with 97% confidence . Hmm, let's go back to the imagined 17/27 from Spike. We need more games? OK. Let's look at this result: Wins: 12 Loss: 5 Draws: 100000 Better? Worse? No, the same. Peter
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