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Subject: Re: The data isn't really very skewed

Author: KarinsDad

Date: 15:52:52 03/02/99

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On March 02, 1999 at 15:39:34, Bruce Moreland wrote:

[snip]
>
>If you go onto ICC and type "best c" you'll get 9 computers and 11 humans in the
>blitz list (my program isn't there, it's off the bottom these days, what's on
>there is mainly a bunch of multiprocessor crafties, and a few people running
>commercials manually).  If you do a round-robin of 10-game matches between
>everyone on that list, at any rational blitz time control, the list would
>scramble completely, and I bet the computers would go *up*.
>
>bruce

What you are saying is reasonable.

However (there is almost always a however with me), Anand has an extremely
difficult time beating Karpov. But Anand is ranked second in the world and
Karpov is ranked 9th or 15th in the world, depending on which list you look at
(the difference is 71 points on FIDE and 86 points on WCC). Nobody says that
Anand's rating is skewed since he has an extremely difficult time beating Karpov
in match or tournament play.

The reason that you and Mark contend that the ICC ratings are skewed is that
some players do not play the computers at blitz whereas the computers play
everyone who challenges them. Hence, the blitz ratings for some humans are
inflated since they are not playing the computers. This is a fair statement.

The original post referred to GMs who played blitz time and had a much higher
blitz rating there than in FIDE. This is easy to explain since in FIDE, GMs are
almost exclusively playing other extremely strong players whereas in ICC, they
can play anyone (and they can also exclude anyone, such as programs). This
supports your contention and I agree with it.

However, the original post also referred to GMs who played more standard times
and played computers and had lower ratings than they did in FIDE. This subset of
GMs and their ratings at standard times does not correspond with the blitz data
(the two are disparate sets of data). One could be led to believe from the
original post's limited data that since the GMs who play computers have lower
ICC ratings than they do FIDE ratings, it is due to them playing computer
programs and hence computer programs are close to GM strength (this is a
postulate, not a fact, and one which is probably not the primary reason for
their lowered ratings).

My contention is that although some of the ratings on ICC are skewed
(specifically the blitz ratings), overall the skewed ratings do not adversely
affect the data regarding the GMs (who do play against programs) that have lower
ratings on ICC than in FIDE on more standard times. However, how much of this is
based on them playing computers, how much of it is based on them playing G30 as
opposed to 40/2 G/1 or similar times, and how much of it is based on them not
taking the games as seriously, has yet to be determined.

KarinsDad :)



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