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Subject: Re: An Experiment that disproves Hyatt's 1000X NPS Theory

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 14:17:43 09/20/05

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On September 20, 2005 at 17:01:57, Peter Kappler wrote:

>On September 20, 2005 at 16:23:42, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On September 20, 2005 at 15:53:32, Peter Kappler wrote:
>>
>>>>>>(1) deep thought (deep blue's direct predecessor) was the first (and only)
>>>>>>program to produce a 2650+ performance result, playing games only against GM
>>>>>>players, at 40 moves in 2 hours only for the time control.  It did this over 25
>>>>>>consecutive games (intervening games could not be ignored if the result was
>>>>>>bad).  No other program has yet accomplished this.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>This was impressive 10 years ago, but today any commercial program (and probably
>>>>>a fair number of amateurs) could easily accomplish this feat running on ordinary
>>>>>hardware.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Why haven't we seen it happen?  Note I am not talking about the much faster time
>>>>controls we have seen more of lately.  But real 40 moves in 2 hours.  I don't
>>>>believe _any_ program today could pull this off on "ordinary" hardware.  They
>>>>would be hard-pressed using very high-end (say quad opteron) systems...
>>>>
>>>
>>>There are so many examples it's hard to know where to begin.  I'll just list a
>>>few.
>>
>>None of those address my point.  If you play in N tournaments, and pick one, you
>>can get most any sort of TPR you want.  If you play nothing but GM players, and
>>I do mean _no_ IM/FM/lower players, and you play 25 consecutive games, counting
>>each and every one, a 2650+ is really a daunting task.
>
>
>Shredder played in the Argentina event in 2003, 2004, and 2005.  I couldn't find
>a TPR for the 2004 tourney, which is why I didn't post it.  But, if you add up
>the games from all 4 events (it played in 2 events in 2004) it's something like
>40 games, with a TPR above 2700.
>
>And the "GMs only" restriction of the Fredkin Prize doesn't make much sense to
>me.  I suspect it's actually harder to get the 2650 result against a field of
>IMs/FMs.

I agree about the last point.

I remember a tournament when Fritz3(p90) played in 1994 and got the IM norm.

It drew against 3 GM's in that tournament and had worse performance against
weaker players because weaker players bought Fritz and prepared against it when
the GM's trusted their strength and did not prepare against Fritz.

Uri



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