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Subject: Re: CEGT 40/40 matches Fritz 9 dropping like a stone

Author: George Tsavdaris

Date: 07:20:49 09/28/05

Go up one level in this thread


On September 28, 2005 at 10:01:18, Uri Blass wrote:

>On September 28, 2005 at 07:04:44, Heinz van Kempen wrote:
>
>>On September 28, 2005 at 06:54:09, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On September 28, 2005 at 06:05:25, Heinz van Kempen wrote:
>>>
>>>>Hi all ,
>>>>
>>>>the need for many games is again shown in CEGT. After a rocket-like start by
>>>>Fritz 9 a catastrophical first series in the match by Michael against Toga was
>>>>already sufficient to let it drop like a stone from highest level to below Fruit
>>>>currently. So it happened like we expected.
>>>
>>>Dropping like a stone?
>>>
>>>I think that a stone should be able to drop faster than that
>>>
>>>Fritz9 is still second place and first place in 4/40 list when more games were
>>>played by Fritz(478 games and not 288 games).
>>>
>>>http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn/eloblitz.html
>>>
>>>
>>>Here are the numbers:
>>>40/4
>>>1 Fritz 9 2796 30 29 478 71.8 % 2634 21.8 %
>>>2 Fruit WCCC'05 2786 24 24 758 73.9 % 2606 22.7 %
>>>
>>>40/40
>>>1 Fruit WCCC'05 2778 12 12 2219 68.6 % 2642 32.6 %
>>>2 Fritz 9 2769 35 35 288 61.5 % 2688 27.8 %
>>>
>>>Nothing significant was changed and the error is still too high to decide which
>>>version is better at 40/4 or 40/40
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Hi Uri,
>>
>>the rating lists will be updated again in the evening with around 700 games for
>>Fritz 9 in Blitz and more results 40/40 from the Leagues and World Trophy.
>>
>>We are again seeing that only 250 games are just a joke and people should stop
>>to draw conclusions from this.
>>
>>Best Regards
>>Heinz
>>
>>http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn/
>

Some additions assuming that the ratings-list has been created with 0.95
certaincy:

>Maybe I am stupid when I think that I can draw conclusions but here is my
>conclusion from results of 288 games of Fritz9
>
>1)Fritz9's rating is at least 2734
1)With 95% probability Fritz9's rating is at least 2734

>2)Fritz8 Bilbao's rating is at most 2724
2)With 95% probability Fritz8 Bilbao's rating is at most 2724

>
>Conclusion
>Fritz9 is better than Fritz8 Bilbao.
There are 95% chances that Fritz9 is better than Fritz8 Bilbao.
But still 5% that Fritz8 Bilbao is better than Fritz9..........


>
>Note also that if programmers never implement a change in their program before
>playing more than 250 games at 40/40 then their progress is going to be very
>slow.
>
>Programmers need to get some conclusion if you want to implement a change or do
>not want to implement a change with data that has less games or data that is
>based on faster time control if they want to be competitive.
>
>Uri



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