Author: George Tsavdaris
Date: 07:20:49 09/28/05
Go up one level in this thread
On September 28, 2005 at 10:01:18, Uri Blass wrote: >On September 28, 2005 at 07:04:44, Heinz van Kempen wrote: > >>On September 28, 2005 at 06:54:09, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On September 28, 2005 at 06:05:25, Heinz van Kempen wrote: >>> >>>>Hi all , >>>> >>>>the need for many games is again shown in CEGT. After a rocket-like start by >>>>Fritz 9 a catastrophical first series in the match by Michael against Toga was >>>>already sufficient to let it drop like a stone from highest level to below Fruit >>>>currently. So it happened like we expected. >>> >>>Dropping like a stone? >>> >>>I think that a stone should be able to drop faster than that >>> >>>Fritz9 is still second place and first place in 4/40 list when more games were >>>played by Fritz(478 games and not 288 games). >>> >>>http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn/eloblitz.html >>> >>> >>>Here are the numbers: >>>40/4 >>>1 Fritz 9 2796 30 29 478 71.8 % 2634 21.8 % >>>2 Fruit WCCC'05 2786 24 24 758 73.9 % 2606 22.7 % >>> >>>40/40 >>>1 Fruit WCCC'05 2778 12 12 2219 68.6 % 2642 32.6 % >>>2 Fritz 9 2769 35 35 288 61.5 % 2688 27.8 % >>> >>>Nothing significant was changed and the error is still too high to decide which >>>version is better at 40/4 or 40/40 >>> >>>Uri >> >>Hi Uri, >> >>the rating lists will be updated again in the evening with around 700 games for >>Fritz 9 in Blitz and more results 40/40 from the Leagues and World Trophy. >> >>We are again seeing that only 250 games are just a joke and people should stop >>to draw conclusions from this. >> >>Best Regards >>Heinz >> >>http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn/ > Some additions assuming that the ratings-list has been created with 0.95 certaincy: >Maybe I am stupid when I think that I can draw conclusions but here is my >conclusion from results of 288 games of Fritz9 > >1)Fritz9's rating is at least 2734 1)With 95% probability Fritz9's rating is at least 2734 >2)Fritz8 Bilbao's rating is at most 2724 2)With 95% probability Fritz8 Bilbao's rating is at most 2724 > >Conclusion >Fritz9 is better than Fritz8 Bilbao. There are 95% chances that Fritz9 is better than Fritz8 Bilbao. But still 5% that Fritz8 Bilbao is better than Fritz9.......... > >Note also that if programmers never implement a change in their program before >playing more than 250 games at 40/40 then their progress is going to be very >slow. > >Programmers need to get some conclusion if you want to implement a change or do >not want to implement a change with data that has less games or data that is >based on faster time control if they want to be competitive. > >Uri
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